I don't remember the last time I read something David Brooks wrote and thought he was right. Trump broke a lot of people in 2015 and Brooks is one.
Lo and behold, Brooks wrote an opinion piece published in the New York Times on Wednesday that makes a lot of sense. He is worried about President Biden's chances of winning re-election, of course, and explains his worries.
The Brooks piece is titled, "Why I'm Getting More Pessimistic About Biden's Chances This Fall." Brooks is on record with his statement that Joe Biden is the strongest 2024 presidential candidate for the Democrat Party. He had two reasons for that opinion - "He has been an effective president, and he is the Democrat most likely to appeal to working-class voters."
Last October, Brooks wrote of Biden and Trump:
He has his faults — the tendency to talk too much, the chip on his shoulder about those who think they are smarter than he is, the gaffes, that episode of plagiarism and the moments of confusion — but I’ve always thought: Give me a leader who identifies with those who feel looked down upon. Give me a leader whose moral compass generally sends him in the right direction.
But I’ve also come to fear and loathe Donald Trump. I cannot fathom what damage that increasingly deranged man might do to this country if given a second term. And the fact is that as the polls and the mood of the electorate stand today, Trump has a decent chance of beating Biden in November of next year and regaining power in 2025.
Brooks let himself fall for emotion over reality. He sounded as though he completely buys into the empathy factor that Biden allegedly possesses. Where is it? Brooks told a story that Biden profoundly grieved the death of his son, Beau, as most parents would do. He added a story about Biden making a call to him when his (Brooks) best friend committed suicide. He comforted Brooks.
However, the flip side is what voters see in Biden's governance - his disregard for the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan which set the tone for his term in office. His poll numbers immediately cratered and he has not recovered. Biden continues to call the withdrawal as a success, which is a slap in the face to the grieving families of the 13 American military members who lost their lives in a terror attack at the gate of the airport in Kabul. The Biden administration left many people behind in Afghanistan, notably those Afghans who assisted U.S. troops during the 20-year war. Biden left them to be executed by the Taliban.
What about the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio? Biden waited over a year to visit, claiming he was too busy to get there earlier. East Palestine is in Trump country. If it wasn't such a deep red county, would Biden have visited promptly? You betcha. Voters notice. Biden had plenty of time for vacation weekends at his homes in Delaware and at Camp David. He celebrated holidays by staying in the homes of billionaires with his family.
Brooks points to two reasons he is getting pessimistic about Biden's re-election - voters prefer Trump on key issues like inflation and immigration. The second reason is Biden is losing the youth vote.
The top two issues for voters are the economy (inflation) and immigration (the open southern border). Biden is underwater in all polls in those areas. The only issues that Biden wins over Trump are abortion and climate. That is why you see Biden out on the campaign trail doing events to spotlight those issues. He has nothing else to run on.
Brooks points out that Trump voters are not all of a cult, as MAGA voters are often described. I could argue that Obama supporters were much like a cult, too, but that's for another day. Republicans and independents will vote for Trump in November because they like his policies and remember how well they worked when he was in the White House. Our lives are not better than they were four years ago. There is Trump nostalgia now because Biden's America is not a happy place. Voters don't have to like Trump to vote for a return to his policies.
Brooks points to an NBC News poll released last weekend. Interest in the presidential election is at a 20-year low. He noted that 64 percent of Americans said they have a high level of interest in the election. In 2020, that number was 77 percent. Only 36 percent of voters ages 18-34 are highly interested in the presidential election. Who can blame them? Two old men are running for president and one of them is noticeably suffering from dementia.
Stories have been published over and over again that voters are not excited about a Biden-Trump re-match.
Brooks also notes the trouble Biden is having because of the Israel-Hamas war. This is when I started nodding my head in agreement. The pro-Hamas demonstrations are Biden's Defund the Police debacle.
I think what we’re seeing at Columbia and on other elite campuses is a precursor to what we’re going to see at the Democratic convention in Chicago. In 1968 the clashes between the New Left activists and Mayor Richard Daley’s cops were an early marker of the differences between the more-educated and less-educated classes. They were part of the trend that sent working-class voters to the G.O.P.
If there are similar clashes in Chicago this August, the chaos will reinforce Trump’s core law-and-order message. It will make Biden look weak and hapless. Phrases like “from the river to the sea” will be 2024’s version of “defund the police” — a slogan that appeals to activists but alienates lots of other voters.
Regular Americans are appalled by what they are seeing on college campuses and in cities where anti-Israel and anti-Jew protests are being held. Bridges and highways are being blocked, creating a public safety problem. Campuses are being shut down and Jewish students are being told to attend online classes because they are not safe on campus. It's chaos funded by dark money groups who wish to destroy America as we know it.
Trump is a stronger candidate for law and order. He is supported by rank-and-file law enforcement and first responders, even though big union brass will endorse Biden. Where was Biden's empathy when he was in NYC for a big fundraiser with Obama and Bill Clinton? He could have stopped by the wake held for a fallen police officer, as Trump did, but he chose to ignore it. Voters noticed.
Today Trump stopped by a construction sight and spoke to the workers. It was 6:00 a.m. and he set the narrative for the day. He started the news cycle by distracting press coverage from his day in a courtroom to chatting with working men and women. Their union bosses may not support Trump but those workers will.
New York union leader Bobby Bartels after meeting with Trump in NYC:
— Addison Smith (@AddisonSmithTV) April 25, 2024
“We are basically Democrats— all of us. [But] after what’s happened the last 4 years in this country, Democrats have basically pushed everybody to the other side.” pic.twitter.com/VQLAJAGcGL
Democrats, led by Biden, are out of step with normal Americans. Even David Brooks sees it. Top issues in the presidential election work in favor of Trump. Young voters are not going to help push Biden to victory as they did in 2020. Is abortion and climate change the way toward victory for Biden in November? That is the question.
The pro-Hamas demonstrations are going to follow Biden to the convention this summer in Chicago. The vibes of 1968 are strong. Today's demonstrators are protesting a war we do not control. Unlike the Vietnam War, America is providing aid but Israel is waging its war.
