A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll has been released. Likely Iowa caucusgoers put Donald Trump in the lead, with his percentage growing by 5 points after the Georgia indictment was announced.

Trump has a more than 2-to-1 lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the number two candidate in polls. Take all polls at this point with a grain or three of salt, as the Iowa caucuses are the first test for Republican presidential primary candidates. The Iowa caucuses are five months away, a lifetime in politics.

An interesting tidbit from the poll shows that the race may be closer than it seems. Caucus voters were asked about their first and second choices. 63% said they support Trump as their first or second choice or are actively considering him. 61% of the respondents said the same about Ron DeSantis. Surprised? To hear most pundits talk, Trump is so far ahead that it will be impossible for anyone, including DeSantis, to catch up with him.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer says the race could be “closer than it may first seem.”

63% say they support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses or are actively considering him.

That's on par with the 61% who say the same for DeSantis.https://t.co/cSsBNGKZpK pic.twitter.com/lftAocWvKi

— Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR) August 21, 2023

It’s important to keep in mind that this is politics and anything can happen. There is time. Trump is rewriting history by claiming he won the Iowa caucuses in 2016. He did not. Ted Cruz won. Nonetheless, Trump claims he will win the Iowa caucuses in 2024. For perspective, Trump went on to win the New Hampshire primary with only 35.3% of the vote in 2016, John Kasich was second with 15.8% of the vote.

Among those likely caucusgoers, 42% say they plan to support Trump — a lead of 23 percentage points over DeSantis, who is at 19%. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina follows in third place with 9%.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence tie at 6%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 5% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy follows with 4%.

The poll finds many indicators of Trump’s strength, but the race is not settled and may be “closer than it may first seem,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll.

Ann Selzer is a Democrat but a longtime Iowa pollster who usually has a good handle on what is going on in Iowa. She is president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll. Her firm polled 406 likely 2024 Republican caucusgoers, Aug. 13-17.

Caucus Day is January 15, 2024.

Only 7% of poll respondents say they are considering only one candidate for president. Iowans are far from decided. 17% say they are considering two candidates, 19% say they are considering three candidates, and the majority of likely caucusgoers, 55%, say they are considering four or more candidates. That tracks with tradition. Iowa caucusgoers are known for last-minute decisions.

This is the first Iowa Poll of the field of 14 Republican candidates.

In addition to the top contenders, seven other candidates are polling at 2% or lower.

They include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is at 2%, and former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, who has 1%.

Businessman Ryan Binkley, conservative radio host Larry Elder, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez all register below 1%.

As they think about which candidate to support,65% of poll respondents say it’s most important to find a candidate who comes closest to their views on issues, while 29% say it’s most important to pick a candidate who has the best chance of defeating Biden.

The poll shows that Trump is in the lead but Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott have room to grow. Tim Scott shows an Iowa footprint of over 50%. He is the only other candidate that shows above 50% when voters are asked for first and second choices, plus who they are actively considering. As mentioned earlier, Trump is at 63%, and DeSantis is at 61%.

In addition to the 9% who say Scott is their first choice for president, 15% say he is their second choice and 29% say they are actively considering him. That gives him an Iowa footprint of 53%.

Haley’s Iowa footprint totals 40%, Ramaswamy’s is 34% and Pence’s is 31%.

Trump’s support is stronger than that of DeSantis by some measurements. Trump has more firmly locked in support than DeSantis. Of those who name Trump as their first choice, 66% say their minds are made up. 34% say they can be persuaded to support someone else. The opposite is true for DeSantis. 31% say their minds are made up for DeSantis while 69% can be persuaded to support someone else.

Trump also leads DeSantis among self-identified Republicans, the core of caucusgoers, 51% to 20%.

Among those who say they will be attending their first caucus in January, Trump leads the Florida governor 47% to 18%.

And among evangelicals, an influential group in Iowa that’s often key to a caucus win, Trump leads with 47% who say he is their first choice for president. He’s followed by DeSantis, who gets 20% of evangelicals, and Scott who gets 7%.

What about the all-important independent voters?

Among independents, Trump and DeSantis are nearly evenly split, with 21% supporting Trump as their first choice and 19% supporting DeSantis.

Another 13% of independents support Scott, 12% support Christie, 10% support Haley, and 6% each support Pence and Ramaswamy. No other candidate tops 5% with independents.

Self-identified independents who say they will likely caucus with Republicans make up 25% of the poll’s respondents.

Selzer said this group is the one to keep an eye on when it comes time for caucuses.

“To me, that’s a little bit of something to be paying attention to,” Selzer said. “Because we’ve seen this happen in the past. A non-Trump candidate could say, ‘I’ve got to get people to come to the caucus who are outside of the GOP base.’ So, if a candidate can grow the people who are coming to the caucuses, that is the way in, because Trump is strong with that base.”

There is more information from this poll which is informative as to where Iowa voters are right now. I plan to write more in upcoming posts. This is a good start.