That big sigh of relief you hear is coming from Chuck Schumer and other Democrats in the Senate. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) announced he is running for a fourth term in office. There was some question on whether or not he would run again and Republicans are hot to grab the seat from the Democrats.

Can Republicans win back the Senate in 2024? The odds are pretty good if you look at the number of seats up for re-election. The map is better for Republicans than Democrats in 2024. Is it too much to ask that good, competent, and qualified candidates are recruited to run on the Republican side this time around? Voters haven’t been voting for Democrats because they like them so much. They’ve been voting for Democrats because some Republican candidates look way out of the mainstream, and some are downright cuckoo for Coco Puffs. Republicans need some solid wins to defeat Biden’s second-term agenda if he runs and wins re-election. In a perfect world, this would not even be a question, but we are where we are. Who thought that Sleepy Joe campaigning from his basement and rarely holding a campaign event would be elected? Yes, it was a very controversial win but nonetheless a win and he sits in the White House today. We are all paying the price.

Lots of things can change in the course of two years but for now, it looks very possible that Republicans can be successful for a simple reason – Democrats are defending more seats. Democrats have not had to defend as many seats as they do in 2024 in quite a while. There are 34 Senate seats up for election. That number includes independents who caucus with Democrats, like Senators Sinema (AZ) and Angus King (ME). In 2022, for example, Republicans defended 21 seats while Democrats only had to defend 14. In 2020, Republicans defended 23 and Democrats defended 12. So, Democrats have had an easier path to the majority in recent cycles. The red wave that didn’t materialize in 2022 denied Republicans crucial victories in Georgia and Pennsylvania.

It wouldn’t be so tough for Democrats if the seats up for election were all in safe blue states, but they aren’t — thank goodness. One state that Republicans have been keeping an eye on is Montana. Montana is a solidly red state in presidential elections. It wasTrump country in 2016 and 2020. However, the state has Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Steve Daines in the Senate. There are eight seats in 2024 that can be considered “FRITZ” states, as the website fivethirtyeight.com calls them.

But it’s not enough to just look at how many seats each party is defending; it wouldn’t be such a big deal if those Democratic seats were all in safely blue states. That’s why I invented a metric called FRITZ seats, named after former Democratic Sen. Fritz Hollings of South Carolina. “FRITZ” stands for “fighting races in terrible zones,” and a FRITZ seat is when a party is defending a seat in enemy territory — like a Democratic senator in a red state.

By this metric, the 2024 Senate map is even worse for Democrats. They have a whopping eight FRITZ seats up for election next year. That includes some of the usual swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But it also includes some redder states like Arizona and Ohio. Democrats even have two senators up for reelection in very red states: Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana.

On the flip side, the GOP has zero FRITZ seats on the ballot in 2024. The bluest states Republicans are defending are Florida and Texas, and they’re pretty red.

Advantage Republicans.

Tester is in for a battle. As I said, Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief today. He announced on Wednesday and his statement emphasized his ability to fight for Montanans in Washington. What he didn’t say was that despite his enjoyment in saying he’s not a typical Democrat and is more independent-minded, he votes for Biden’s agenda at every opportunity. He’s part of the problem in Washington.

“I am running for re-election so I can keep fighting for Montanans and demand that Washington stand up for our veterans and lower costs,” Tester said in a statement. “Montanans need a fighter holding Washington accountable and I’m running to defend our Montana values.”

The only hold-out on saying if he’s running for re-election or not now is Joe Manchin. He’s the same as Tester. He talks a big game of being his own man and not just another vote for Democrats and then he goes and votes the party line. It never fails.

In order to keep control of their majority in the Senate, Democrats have to win the races in Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana. Rest assured that Montana Republicans are fielding the best candidate possible to challenge Tester. Tester has won before against strong challengers so he’s been down this path.

But Tester’s decision, along with Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) bid for a fourth term, gives Democrats a pathway to keep their majority. The party currently holds 51 seats, meaning it can only afford a net loss of one seat in 2024 provided Democrats maintain control of the White House. And with sparse pick-up opportunities next year, the most straightforward path is returning the party’s incumbents to office, meaning Democrats must win reelection in at least two of the three red states: Ohio, West Virginia and Montana.

Tester has won races under myriad scenarios since entering national politics. He defeated former GOP Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, successfully split tickets with former President Barack Obama in 2012 and survived a difficult midterm cycle in 2018 by defeating now-Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.). During that race, Tester raised the ire of former President Donald Trump by helping sink his pick for the Veterans’ Affairs Department, now-Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas).

Both Rosendale and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) are weighing a bid against Tester; Zinke passed on the 2018 race by joining Trump’s cabinet as secretary of the Interior. Republicans are also keeping their eyes on Gov. Greg Gianforte and state Attorney General Austin Knudsen to mount potential GOP campaigns to unseat Tester.

The Republican bench looks pretty solid in Montana. Let’s hope they pick the candidate that can send Jon Tester back to his ranch full–time.