Last week, many people were surprised when Ukraine unexpectedly launched a military incursion into Russian territory, capturing some real estate in the Kursk Oblast to the north of Ukraine's northern-central border. (Here's a link to a Google map zoomed in on Kursk in case you want to follow along.) Most of the military analysts that I follow agreed that you might be justified in calling the move "bold." But at the same time, few would describe it as any sort of strategic offensive. Zelenski definitely caught the Russians off guard, but Putin hadn't really bothered putting any troops and armor in the area because nobody expected the Ukrainians to attack there. It's a largely rural area with low population density. What was Zelensky going to attack? Some farms? 

Granted, if you launch a drive north from Ukraine through Kursk, you will be on an overland path toward Moscow, so perhaps that was the intended threat to shake Putin up a bit. But it's more than 300 miles from Kursk to Moscow. The Ukrainians do not have the troops, the armor, or the air support to sustain a march of that distance inside Russian territory and they wouldn't even be able to maintain their supply lines. Russia still has plenty of troops and armor around Moscow and they could quickly bring more to support them from the eastern oblasts. Long before Zelensky could get close to the capital, they would meet him halfway, likely with very heavy air support, advanced rockets, and drones, and probably exterminate the Ukrainian forces, leaving them with nothing to show for their efforts. 

Trying to offer Ukraine the benefit of the doubt, I considered what other motivation they might have for doing this. Perhaps it was a diversionary tactic. The Russians have been beating the Ukrainians up pretty badly on the eastern front. Maybe Zelensky was seeking a way to draw off some of the Russian forces to defend the farmlands of Kursk (and spare Putin some embarrassment) and give themselves a break in the east. Well, if that was the plan, it appears to have worked, at least for now. Yesterday Putin ordered the military to "dislodge" the Ukrainian forces from Kursk and they are on the way to do so. (CBS News)

President Vladimir Putin ordered his army on Monday to "dislodge" Ukrainian troops who have entered Russian territory as authorities said more than 120,000 people had been evacuated away from the fighting.

Kyiv launched a surprise offensive into Russia's western Kursk region last Tuesday, capturing more than two dozen settlements in the most significant cross-border attack on Russian soil since World War II.

"One of the obvious goals of the enemy is to sow discord, strife, intimidate people, destroy the unity and cohesion of Russian society," Putin told a televised meeting with government officials.

"The main task is, of course, for the defense ministry to dislodge the enemy from our territories," he said.

Returning to the estimation I provided above, remember that the distance to Moscow is more than 300 miles. In the first week, the Ukrainian forces have advanced... seven miles into Kursk. And now the real Russian military is on the way, not just a bunch of farmers. In fact, they already began striking within the first 24 hours of the order being given. Just this afternoon, Reuters reported that Russia hit the Ukrainian forces there with missiles, drones, and airstrikes. Armored columns are on the way from the east. 

With that in mind, Zelensky's gambit actually worked, at least for the time being. (Golf clap.) He's drawing off troops, armor, and air power from the eastern front and may buy his troops there a bit of a reprieve. But the obvious question remains, what comes next? Zelensky is already low on troops and he can't maintain any supply lines into central Kursk. If his troops don't pull back before the cavalry arrives, they will be decimated. Of course, it's possible he never intended to stay in the first place. (Or at least I hope not.) The Ukrainians will need to pull back to their own turf and the Russians will return to the eastern front, but they will likely be watching Kursk much more closely going forward in case Ukraine decides to try it again.

The potential downside to this gambit is that Zelensky has just embarrassed Vladimir Putin on the international stage by successfully attacking on Russian soil. You can applaud that if you like, but Putin was already being extremely recalcitrant in agreeing to any serious negotiations and the United States has done nothing to steer these events in a positive direction. In the long run, nothing has changed significantly because of this on the battlefield. We need to find a way to convince Putin to honorably discuss a negotiated peace settlement while there is still something left of Ukraine, even if that means allowing him to keep some or even most of the annexed territory in the east. Ticking him off in this fashion isn't going to do anything to increase his motivation. Ukraine's "drive" into Kursk should demonstrate how impossible it remains for Ukraine to actually "defeat" Russia entirely, while Russia could still eventually wipe out Ukraine, though the cost would be high. This remains a David vs. Goliath battle and, unfortunately, David is fresh out of stones for his sling.