If DeSantis secures a decisive victory in November, he could prove a formidable challenger to Biden — and an attractive alternative to Trump. While Biden continues to reach new lows in approval, polls also show most Americans still don’t wish Trump were back in the Oval Office. A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey finds that majorities do not want either Trump (55 percent) or Biden (63 percent) to run in 2024, with almost 6 in 10 saying they would be open to supporting a third-party candidate if faced with a rematch between the two. If they do both run again, Trump holds a mere two-point edge over Biden — a statistical tie.

The fact that Trump is deadlocked with Biden — whose approval has plummeted further and faster than any modern president — should be a red flag for Republicans. Right now, 69 percent of Republicans say they want Trump to run again, according to a CBS News-YouGov poll. But after seeing the disastrous policies Biden has implemented — the worst inflation in 40 years, the worst crime wave since the 1990s, the worst border crisis in American history — they also know that the 2024 election is one Republicans absolutely have to win. If Republican primary voters are convinced that Trump cannot prevail, they might back someone else.