While the military buildup was months in the making, Putin seems to have done very little to prepare the Russian public for war before giving these two addresses. This may explain why we’re already seeing reports that Russian mothers feel deceived and hoodwinked, believing their sons were only going for exercises. (Russian mommies played a significant role in making the Chechnya campaigns more unpopular in the past.)
For all these reasons, this appears to be Putin’s war and Putin’s choice. It comes after Putin’s failures to get Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements, and his failure to deter Ukraine from collaborating more with NATO members such as the United Kingdom and Turkey. Which means Putin’s entire legacy and prestige is wrapped up in this campaign. That certainly makes him dangerous. But if it goes poorly, or if the costs for Russians are too high, Putin himself will be a juicy scapegoat for the regime and the society that has lived under and endured his leadership. The exact same brotherly ties between Ukraine and Russia that Putin wrote about in an essay on their historical unity may cause a significant number of Russians to recoil if the war becomes long, or particularly bloody.
Wars of choice are risky things — even for dictators. The privation, stress, and death that war inflicts cannot be blamed solely on outsiders. This horror is his responsibility.
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