This is likely only the first of a trio of perceived power shifts to come. The second will result from a combination of the next “morning in America” moment here in the States and China hitting a cluster of inevitable developmental walls — environmental damage, demographic aging, resource constraints and political pluralism, among others. And while there might be little real danger of a U.S.-China military conflict today, imagine the potential for confrontation when China’s rising nationalism combines with the popular anger resulting from the realization that the “Chinese century” lasted less than a generation.
The third power shift is likely to be even harder for China to swallow: India’s pronounced demographic dividend means it will inevitably inherit China’s current status as globalization’s factory floor. Around 2030, India’s labor pool will surpass that of China’s, and by 2050 it will become larger by half. At some point along the way, most probably crystallized by some debilitating large-scale crisis in China, India will permanently dethrone China as the new “rising power” in the global narrative. In that process, America will lose some relative standing, but it won’t create the same kind of fear in the system because of India’s longstanding status as a stable democracy.
There remain two great uncertainties attached to these forthcoming power shifts. First, how will China handle America’s resurrection? And second, how will India handle the onset of its recognized “rise” into first-tier superpower status? What is certain, however, is that “hedging” or “containing” China is both a waste of time and likely to backfire over the long term by creating an unnecessary legacy of resentment and suspicion, because demographically speaking, “the fix” is already in.
Instead, in the coming years, Washington should seek to establish a new “trilateral commission” that swaps out Europe and Japan for India and China.
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