Late yesterday, Bloomberg published the text from the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreed upon by the US and Iran, apparently from American sources, or at least not from Iran. Regime media outlet Tasnim objected that the translation is inaccurate, as Scott Johnson notes at Power Line, but also that Bloomberg warned that the English and Farsi versions might differ. One might consider that a red flag in itself.
Bloomberg decided to paywall the entire text, but Scott pulled it from secondary sources. He adds some commentary at the start, which everyone should read, but please click through to do so. Suffice it to say that Scott sees this as "the terms of our surrender," while my read on it is slightly more positive: it looks more like Munich 1938. This is not peace in our time, but merely a postponement of war that puts us in a worse position for conflict when it returns, and largely at the expense of an ally.
Allow me to annotate my concerns and criticisms of the Bloomberg version of the MOU in my Final Word style, with a summary at the end:
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1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
Ed: The US is binding Israel to an agreement in which it did not participate or approve. Furthermore, the US already negotiated a ceasefire in Lebanon that requires Hezbollah to disarm, as did the ceasefire in November 2024, the UN Security Council in Resolution 1701, etc. This first clause doesn't even bind Lebanon or Hezbollah while tying Israel's hands.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
Ed: The problem with Iran is not its interference in America's internal affairs, but its interference in the internal affairs of Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, and previously Syria.
3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift [sic] the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
Ed: Presumably, clauses 4 and 5 are to be executed simultaneously. But why? We are operating in international waters to secure free passage, as we have done since WWII around the world. We do not need to retreat to allow full access to Iranian ports, and our withdrawal means we cannot enforce these terms without another expensive mobilization.
6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
Ed: This is absurd. We may have needed to offer a carrot to get the IRGC to comply with denuclearization, but unless we get the "nuclear dust" in 60 days, we're back to the JCPOA. We're providing benefits up front for promises of compliance later. This looks Wimpy in every sense of the word.
7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
Ed: We're committing to ending sanctions without any commitment by Iran so far to verifiably end its nuclear program, cut ties to terrorist networks, and agree to limits on its ballistic missile systems. All of those were the objectives Donald Trump laid out when he started the war. So far, though, the MOU prioritizes us providing $300 billion and ending sanctions without even a mention at this point about those objectives.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
Ed: Where have we heard that before? The JCPOA. Trump called it the worst deal in US history. This is not much different.
9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
Ed: So Iran keeps its JCPOA-violating status quo without accompanying sanctions? It gets worse ...
10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
Ed:: Reading 8-11 together, it means that Iran can stand pat on its nuclear program while the US dismantles its sanctions, unfreezes Iranian assets, and allows for full oil exports in the open market. And the MOU never discusses terrorism or missile limits. The White House keeps insisting that all of this is sequenced on compliance, but there is nothing at all in the MOU that creates any sequencing, let alone compliance verification.
12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
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Is this a surrender? Not exactly, but it's a signal that Trump may have become tired of fighting. Perhaps there are other irons in the fire behind the scenes, and it's still possible that this is not a fully accurate or final version of the MOU. Let's hope that this is in error, because it leaves us in a worse position with Iran and Hezbollah than at the start of the ceasefire, and arguably worse than the start of the war. We have to factor into the latter calculation all of the damage done to the IRGC's military-industrial capacity, of course, but that should have given us leverage to force better terms than these. And the flood of capital this MOU will create for the IRGC will allow them to rebuild more quickly than we imagine, especially with sanctions dismantled.
The life expectancy of this agreement may be measured in hours anyway. Israel simply will not allow Iran to continue the war through Hezbollah, either now or at a later time. The first time Hezbollah fires a missile or drone at the IDF or northern Israel, it'll be game on again, whether Trump likes it or not. CENTCOM shouldn't sail their fleets too far from the Gulf of Oman in the meantime,
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