FAFO III? Or World War III?

Looks like we will see the Iranian FA "imminently," as a senior White House official told ABC News this morning. If so, stand by for the FO, which won't take long in following:

A senior White House official told ABC News on Tuesday that the U.S. "has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel."

"We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack," the official added. "A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran."

One has to wonder whether the FO arrives before the FA in this case. Israel believes in pre-emption ahead of attacks; they won the 1967 Six-Day War that way, and a ballistic missile attack from Iran certainly rises to that level of threat. The last time Iran launched a direct attack against Israel, the Israelis played defense first before going to offense, but they have no real requirement to do so.

One development to watch will be the composition of the defense against such an attack. The last time Iran attacked (in April), Israel got assistance from the US, the UK, Jordan, and Egypt. The latter two are none too (publicly) pleased with Israel's decision to go to full-scale war against Hezbollah, but that was also true about Hamas at that time. Regardless, they fear Iran even more, and with better reason -- and privately, they have to be happy to see Iran's proxy-encirclement strategy broken with the destruction of both groups. 

Another point to watch will be the scale of the attack. Iran probably has decided that it has to answer for the destruction of Hezbollah's entire leadership by Israel, if only to maintain its own credibility with Shi'ite jihadis in the region. The last time, they three 300 or so missiles and drones at Israel, but that scale could prompt Israel to conduct a decapitation strike like they just successfully concluded against Hezbollah in Beirut. If this is a smaller-scale demonstration strike without any damage, perhaps the Israelis will settle for a small-scale but costly retaliatory strike. 

Anything larger than that, especially with Israel in Michael Corleone mode, risks the entire regime. If the mullahs throw the kitchen sink against Israel, look out. The US will be forced to respond with offensive strikes in that case as well as the Israelis, and that could either create regime change in Tehran or Armageddon. For right now, the US just plans to play defense, which may mean that they know that the attack will be of a smaller scale:

The US is prepared to do whatever it can to help Israel intercept anything Iran directs its way, similar to how the US offered its assistance in April, when Iran launched a wave of drones and missiles towards Israel — the vast majority of which were successfully intercepted, a US official said.

The scale of the anticipated Iranian attack this time was not immediately clear.

The mullahs are playing a losing hand here, and they have to know it. Any significant response from the Israelis would create a destabilizing effect in Iran to an already-rickety and unpopular regime. The Israelis just gave the mullahs a demonstration in Yemen about target selection for reprisals in response to direct attacks: energy infrastructure, shipping infrastructure, and security services. The loss of any of these in significant degree could touch off a popular uprising that would end the war for good, and likely put the mullahs and their lackeys up against the wall or dangling from the cranes they love to use on others. 

They can't say they weren't warned. Or did they think Benjamin Netanyahu was bluffing yesterday?

Update: According to multiple sources, Iran has alerted other countries about the scope and nature of their retaliatory attack. Israel has prepared for a "large scale" ballistic assault:

Iran informed “international parties” of the size and timing of its anticipated attack on Israel, a US Defense Department official tells Sky News Arabia. ...

A US-based Axios reporter writes on X that Iran is expected to attack Israel with ballistic missiles that can reach targets within 12 minutes, and not with drones or cruise missiles that take longer.

They'd better prepare for the response. I suspect that the Ayatollah will remain hidden for a very long while to come. 

Update: I talked with my colleague Seth Liebsohn yesterday about the war and more for the Salem affiliate in Phoenix. Mike Gallagher apparently replayed some of this on the national program this morning, too. 

Hope you enjoy it!