Minnesota is a blue-leaning purple state. Despite its reputation as a Deep Blue state, the reality is more complicated, and that may matter in this year's election.
It is true that Democrats have dominated statewide races for years. Tim Pawlenty won, but only because a centrist independent party siphoned off more votes from Democrats than from Republicans. Generally speaking, the Democrats have had a lock on any seat with a statewide voting base.
On the other hand, Republicans have managed to eke out majorities in either the Minnesota Senate or the House because, outside the Twin Cities metropolitan region, Democrats are pretty unpopular, as they have lurched left and become the party of government unions and Somalis — the very groups that give the Democrats the winning margins in statewide elections. Neither electorate can help Democrats win a local race in most districts, but together they represent a significant enough share of the statewide electorate to swing races.
“Right now our current governor, our secretary of state, and our attorney general - they have been allowing this to happen since 2011... Time for a change.” Minnesota voters are demanding immediate change, arguing unaddressed fraud has gone on for over fifteen years without accountability.
— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) October 28, 2026
Ah, but could that coalition hurt the Democrats enough in 2026 to cost them one, two, or even three statewide elections? We'll find out soon enough.
Peggy Flanagan is in on the fraud. https://t.co/P4MvFZECxb
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 28, 2026
The fraud is the issue, obviously, and that fraud is directly tied to the two groups who form the core of the Democrats' electoral base, and everybody knows it. Democrats bend over backward not only to cater to Somali interests, but they produce what amounts to hostage videos advertising to everybody how much they depend on their votes.
https://t.co/iRONW58Hjw
— JBartlett (@JBartle44051086) October 21, 2026
Democrats like Jacob Frey actually cut commercials speaking Somali, and Somalis are now winning elections in Blue districts far out of proportion to their population because they organize along ethnic lines, and the candidates explicitly promise to represent Somalia and Somali interests before Minnesotans'. We have Somali gang wars going on even in suburban areas, and the Sheriff in Saint Paul talks of hundreds of violent gang members and incidents.
Nothing to see here, just a Somali ‘community leader’ openly calling for jihad inside the Minnesota State Capitol. How did it even get to this point? https://t.co/xkGESxxUUu
— Dr. Maalouf (@realMaalouf) October 22, 2026
Both the governor's and senate races are dominated by the Somali fraud controversies, and the gang battles are getting their fair share of discussion as well. Both Peggy Flanagan, the senate candidate and former Lieutentant Governor, and Amy Klobuchar, current senator and candidate for governor, are running away from Tim Walz (who the Democrats wanted to be Vice President!) and promising to clean up the Democrats' mess.
🚨 BREAKING: Lisa Demuth just dropped a new TV ad slamming Amy Klobuchar. “Minnesotans are compassionate, but we’re being taken advantage of. We need a course correction, and we need it now.” Great ad with one week until Election Day. https://t.co/aQCNFQSeXN
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 28, 2026
NEW TV AD: Minnesota needs a course correction. And we need it now. https://t.co/RD64jau3gc
— Lisa Demuth (@LisaDemuthMN) October 28, 2026
Democrats keep trying to change the subject, but the subject is Somalis and, by extension, the Democrats' deep ties with and advocacy for their community despite all the trouble they are causing.
"'The Republicans have their best shot in 20 years at winning the state,' Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz told Newsweek, crediting the state's issues with corruption and 'Democratic Party fatigue' as reasons why Republicans might secure a win. He added that he would not be surprised if Tafoya won the election." 6 days, Minnesota.
— Michele Tafoya (@Michele_Tafoya) October 28, 2026
Most polls show a very close race in the Senate and a less close one for the governor's mansion.
11 DAYS, MINNESOTA. This race is ours to win. Minnesotans deserve accountability—not more excuses from Peggy Flanagan. Make your plan. Get out and vote. Let’s finish strong! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/QpnZynWojO
— Michele Tafoya (@Michele_Tafoya) October 23, 2026
The New York Times/Siena poll is an outlier, placing both Democrats way ahead and Republicans in the 30s, and the only explanation for that is a turnout model that assumes a large Blue wave. Possible, of course, given the political environment, but the Democrats sure aren't acting like that is happening. Flanagan is digging deep into her base vote because she knows she is in trouble.
She's given up hope for campaigning as the candidate for all of Minnesota. She's almost admitting that her constituency is government unions and Somalis, and she is assuming, perhaps rightly, that they will turn out in record numbers.
One Minneapolis Precinct already has 101% voter turnout and it's not even election day yet. It's called democracy.
— Nathan Hansen (@nathanmhansen) October 28, 2026
The brightest spot for Republicans is the likely loss of Keith Ellison, which would put the Attorney General's seat in Republican hands for the first time in more than half a century. Ellison is directly tied to the Somali fraud and has a pro-criminal record, including helping pardon a child rapist in an unsuccessful attempt to block his deportation.
That's a bad look. He's trying to put on a "tough on fraud" face now, but few people believe it.
The odds are stacked against Republicans, of course, in the other statewide races, but the Democrats face headwinds nobody predicted before Nick Shirley blew the races wide open. Tafoya has a real shot, despite what The New York Times is selling, and DeMuth is not an impossibility.
🚨 BREAKING: The DOJ and FBI have THWARTED a planned TERRORIST ATTACK by a Somali at the Mall of America in Minnesota Sheikhdoon Abdullahi Mohamud, 18, said he planned to kiII 30 to 60 NON-MUSLIMS in the ISIS-inspired attacked Mohamud bought an AK-47 and 200 rounds of ammo, and planned to carry out the attack this month. In his own messages, he wrote: "I want to fight in Somalia to support ISIS" When he couldn't afford a flight overseas, he allegedly decided to commit a domestic terror attack instead.
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) October 7, 2026
I would put their odds higher if Trump were less unpopular, but nobody here can control that variable. Complaining about that is no more effective than cursing gravity.
So the answer to whether Somalis have doomed Democrats is... maybe. They certainly have wounded them badly in the public's eye. Ironically, that means the Democrats need amazing turnout from the very Somali political machine that has wounded them in the eyes of everybody else.
Once again, Minnesota's political future depends on Somalis. Ugh.
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