Minnesota is a blue-leaning purple state. Despite its reputation as a Deep Blue state, the reality is more complicated, and that may matter in this year's election. 

It is true that Democrats have dominated statewide races for years. Tim Pawlenty won, but only because a centrist independent party siphoned off more votes from Democrats than from Republicans. Generally speaking, the Democrats have had a lock on any seat with a statewide voting base. 

On the other hand, Republicans have managed to eke out majorities in either the Minnesota Senate or the House because, outside the Twin Cities metropolitan region, Democrats are pretty unpopular, as they have lurched left and become the party of government unions and Somalis — the very groups that give the Democrats the winning margins in statewide elections. Neither electorate can help Democrats win a local race in most districts, but together they represent a significant enough share of the statewide electorate to swing races. 

Ah, but could that coalition hurt the Democrats enough in 2026 to cost them one, two, or even three statewide elections? We'll find out soon enough. 

The fraud is the issue, obviously, and that fraud is directly tied to the two groups who form the core of the Democrats' electoral base, and everybody knows it. Democrats bend over backward not only to cater to Somali interests, but they produce what amounts to hostage videos advertising to everybody how much they depend on their votes. 

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Democrats like Jacob Frey actually cut commercials speaking Somali, and Somalis are now winning elections in Blue districts far out of proportion to their population because they organize along ethnic lines, and the candidates explicitly promise to represent Somalia and Somali interests before Minnesotans'. We have Somali gang wars going on even in suburban areas, and the Sheriff in Saint Paul talks of hundreds of violent gang members and incidents. 

Both the governor's and senate races are dominated by the Somali fraud controversies, and the gang battles are getting their fair share of discussion as well. Both Peggy Flanagan, the senate candidate and former Lieutentant Governor, and Amy Klobuchar, current senator and candidate for governor, are running away from Tim Walz (who the Democrats wanted to be Vice President!) and promising to clean up the Democrats' mess. 

Democrats keep trying to change the subject, but the subject is Somalis and, by extension, the Democrats' deep ties with and advocacy for their community despite all the trouble they are causing. 

Most polls show a very close race in the Senate and a less close one for the governor's mansion. 

The New York Times/Siena poll is an outlier, placing both Democrats way ahead and Republicans in the 30s, and the only explanation for that is a turnout model that assumes a large Blue wave. Possible, of course, given the political environment, but the Democrats sure aren't acting like that is happening. Flanagan is digging deep into her base vote because she knows she is in trouble. 

She's given up hope for campaigning as the candidate for all of Minnesota. She's almost admitting that her constituency is government unions and Somalis, and she is assuming, perhaps rightly, that they will turn out in record numbers. 

The brightest spot for Republicans is the likely loss of Keith Ellison, which would put the Attorney General's seat in Republican hands for the first time in more than half a century. Ellison is directly tied to the Somali fraud and has a pro-criminal record, including helping pardon a child rapist in an unsuccessful attempt to block his deportation. 

That's a bad look. He's trying to put on a "tough on fraud" face now, but few people believe it. 

The odds are stacked against Republicans, of course, in the other statewide races, but the Democrats face headwinds nobody predicted before Nick Shirley blew the races wide open. Tafoya has a real shot, despite what The New York Times is selling, and DeMuth is not an impossibility.

I would put their odds higher if Trump were less unpopular, but nobody here can control that variable. Complaining about that is no more effective than cursing gravity. 

So the answer to whether Somalis have doomed Democrats is... maybe. They certainly have wounded them badly in the public's eye. Ironically, that means the Democrats need amazing turnout from the very Somali political machine that has wounded them in the eyes of everybody else. 

Once again, Minnesota's political future depends on Somalis. Ugh.