So...What Does It All Mean?

Losing Virginia by 6, or New Jersey by one or two, would have been a hopeful sign, and winning the Virginia A.G.'s race would have at least shown that Democrats are not sociopaths bent on killing Republicans. 

Four years ago, Jack Ciattarelli overperformed the average RCP polling margin by about five points.

This year, he underperformed it by ~ten points.

Significant polling misses in NJ and VA. Both electorates were substantially bluer than expected.

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 5, 2025

Instead, the opposite happened. Jack Ciattarelli got crushed despite the polls showing him closing in, and Jay Jones won by a more than comfortable margin. Zohran Mamdani won what appears to be an outright majority, refuting the argument that Curtis Sliwa's exit from the race would have resulted in a Cuomo victory. 

Only 46% of Virginia voters considered Jay Jones' violent text messages against Republicans (& their children) were disqualifying.

Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/DXjLHH24rb

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) November 5, 2025

Jay Jones won by six points. Six points. 

Democrats' victories were astounding, but what drove them most of all was the gender gap. Women in general, and young women in particular, carried the Democratic Party to victory. Young men swung left, but the gender gap was wide and widening. 

Dems do seem to be doing better with young men. But the gender gap is still pronounced.

64% for Mamdani in NYC
56% for Spanberger in VA
54% for Sherrill in NJ
per NBC's exit polls.

— Rachel Janfaza (@racheljanfaza) November 5, 2025

What seems to drive the votes of the youth is feelz more than policy, although it's clear that the appeal of socialism has much to do with the shift leftward as well. We cannot discount the fact that it wasn't just Democrats that carried the night, but left-wing Democrats in particular did very well among the young. 

One more fun finding from this poll — among NYC likely voters, the DSA has a higher net favorability than Andrew Cuomo.

DSA:
🟢 33% favorable
🟡 21% neutral
🔴 24% unfavorable
Net: 🟢 +9

Andrew Cuomo:
🟢 41% favorable
🟡 14% neutral
🔴 43% unfavorable
Net: 🔴-2 https://t.co/1smYxenAmN pic.twitter.com/mUEd8vDlAF

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) November 4, 2025

It's easy to overestimate the significance of any one victory (MAGA, take note of that one too, as many MAGA folks have overinterpreted Trump's 2024 victory), but it is just as easy to dismiss the meaning as well. Many Republicans are comforting themselves with the cope that the victories took place in Blue states, and in Virginia, the effects of the government shutdown hit particularly hard as there are a gazillion federal workers and contractors in the state. 

I think it's idiotic to overreact to a couple of elections in blue states, but a few thoughts:

1) Scot Pressler, TPUSA, and a bunch of others have been working hard to register voters. I said it in 2022, and I've said it repeatedly since: our coalition is "lower propensity" and…

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 5, 2025

I think it's idiotic to overreact to a couple of elections in blue states, but a few thoughts:

1) Scot Pressler, TPUSA, and a bunch of others have been working hard to register voters. I said it in 2022, and I've said it repeatedly since: our coalition is "lower propensity" and that means we have to do better at turning out voters than we have in the past.

2) We need to focus on the home front. The president has done a lot that has already paid off in lower interest rates and lower inflation, but we inherited a disaster from Joe Biden and Rome wasn't built in a day. We're going to keep on working to make a decent life affordable in this country, and that's the metric by which we'll ultimately be judged in 2026 and beyond. 

3) The infighting is stupid. I care about my fellow citizens--particularly young Americans--being able to afford a decent life, I care about immigration and our sovereignty, and I care about establishing peace overseas so our resources can be focused at home. If you care about those things too, let's work together.

But again...the margins. Democrats greatly overperformed what the polls told us would happen, which means supporters of Democrats turned out in great numbers and supporters of Republicans did not. All the energy is on the Democrat side, and Republicans are not showing up at the polls when we need them. 

The only poll that counts is the election, right?

CNN Virginia attorney General exit poll by gender

Men:
🔴 Miyares: 58% (+18)
🔵 Jones: 40%

Woman:
🔵 Jones: 55% (+12)
🔴 Miyares: 43% pic.twitter.com/sjJpOjMEU8

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 5, 2025

This is the most important, most dire, most dangerous thing in the country right now.

To ignore this, is to ignore all future election outcomes.

Suicidal empathy of young women, whose emotions are preyed upon by the Democratic Party is what is causing this.

Open. Your. Eyes.

— Matt Van Swol (@matt_vanswol) November 5, 2025

For people comforting themselves that Mamdani's victory will be good for Republicans in the long run, I say this: what has Brandon Johnson's Chicago failure done for us? Not much. And the decline of New York will take much longer than you think. New York is a vital and resilient city, and while there will be a lot of small to medium-sized failures that will stack up, it will take a long time for them to add up. 

If policy failures alone served as cautionary tales, California alone would drive Republican victories. Instead, it could well be that Gavin Newsom, whose sliminess is only exceeded by Adam Schiff's, will be the Democratic nominee in 2028. 

Everything will ride on the economy next year and in 2028. Jobs and purchasing power drive votes more than anything else, and Trump's policies better pan out. 

Reagan's policies had taken effect by 1984, and he was trounced in the 1982 House and gubernatorial elections, as the pain caused by his efforts to wring out inflation made people very angry. 

We should also remember that Obama, who is relatively popular, was an electoral disaster down the ballot. His relative popularity didn't translate to his party; in fact, the opposite was true. His presidency was a disaster for his party. 

This stuff cracks me up. The Democratic Party suffered greatly under Obama. After his election in 2008, Dems had 59 Senators (57D + 2I), a 257-seat majority in the House, 29 Governors & control of 61 state legislatures.

When Obama left office after 2016, Dems only had 48 Senate… pic.twitter.com/NORV66Bs2L

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 2, 2025

The Democratic Party suffered greatly under Obama. After his election in 2008, Dems had 59 Senators (57D + 2I), a 257-seat majority in the House, 29 Governors & control of 61 state legislatures.

When Obama left office after 2016, Dems only had 48 Senate seats (46D +2I), a 194-seat minority in the House, 16 Governors & 29 state legislatures.

Obama was good at getting himself elected and reelected, but that's it.

So what does it all mean? What lessons should we learn? 

First, Democrats are fine with politicians who talk about killing Republicans. 

Second, voters respond to economics more than rhetoric, and while the economics of Democrats don't add up, economic anxiety means people want a change. 

Third, the young are truly, madly, deeply stupid and ill-educated. 

Fourth, young women...well, it's obvious that there is a mental health crisis. It will hopefully burn itself out, somehow. 

Or not. Civilizations do fall, you know, and it is usually because they rotted from within.