I have been writing extensively about the decline of the United Kingdom, but it is hardly the only European country facing deep-seated political, economic, and social troubles. Germany, as we all know, is facing similar issues, as is Sweden.
But France may be the first of these countries to go from creaking under the weight of decline into a full-blown crisis.
France is saddled with a massive debt pile, rising borrowing costs and governments that collapse in a matter of months.
— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) September 2, 2025
So what to do? Macron is focused on recognizing a Palestinian state — terrorist, corrupt and threat to the West. https://t.co/2yHnivd2j5
When we think of France, we tend to focus on its president, Emmanuel Macron. He is the head of state, after all, and he is an interesting figure. He looks great in a suit; his wife generates a lot of speculation and fascination (no, she is unlikely to be a man, Candace Owens); and he is the guy you see when summits happen.
The Parliament is filled with anonymous people, and like our Congress is easy to forget about--easier, really, since we don't follow the ins and outs of French politics on a daily basis.
But if you want to understand how unstable French politics and society are, look just below the surface and you will see that France is on the brink of fiscal collapse after years of political dysfunction.
PARIS—There is a country in the European Union saddled with a massive debt pile, rising borrowing costs and governments that collapse in a matter of months—and it’s not Italy.
France, rather, is sliding into a morass that once plagued its southern neighbor. If French Prime Minister François Bayrou loses a Sept. 8 confidence vote on his efforts to rein in the country’s budget deficit with 44 billion euros—roughly $51 billion—in cuts, he will become the fourth head of government to lose his job in a year and a half.
High turnover in the prime minister’s office was once rare in France, a cornerstone of Europe with a political system designed to foster stable governance. In recent years, however, France has entered a vicious cycle: Deteriorating public finances are fueling political fragmentation, which in turn prevents the nation from making hard choices about how to fix its fiscal mess.
Bayrou isn’t expected to survive the confidence vote, which would leave President Emmanuel Macron having to name a new prime minister to form the next government. But last week Bayrou urged lawmakers to rally behind him as “a matter of survival for our state.”
The more ungovernable France becomes, the more investors are pushing its borrowing costs to levels familiar to Europe’s debt-laden periphery. The yield on France’s 10-year bonds has risen above Greece’s and its borrowing rate is currently neck-and-neck with Italy’s.
Things are so bad that France may seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
France isn't Greece or Italy, and a fiscal crisis there would be exponentially more damaging than in these smaller countries. Especially given that the former economic powerhouse of the EU, Germany, is groaning under the weight of horrific economic policies that are hollowing out its industrial base.
An array of leftist parties doesn’t want any cuts to France’s welfare state, which accounts for 65% of public spending. Centrist lawmakers allied with Bayrou and Macron—as well as a cluster of establishment conservatives—want to boost military spending to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without raising taxes. And Marine Le Pen’s far-right lawmakers say the government should cut spending by reducing immigration and payments to the EU.
Macron laid the groundwork for the current malaise when he introduced sweeping tax cuts after he was first elected in 2017 without making similar reductions to the cost of French healthcare, education and other public services. He abolished the wealth and housing taxes, lowered corporate levies and introduced a flat tax on capital gains. The combined measures meant that by 2023 the state was deprived of €62 billion in annual tax revenue, or 2.2% of GDP.
The tax cuts helped make France one of the most attractive destinations for foreign investment in Europe, and unemployment fell to 7%, its lowest level in decades. Economic growth initially picked up, helping finance tax measures, but then a series of crises hit. The violent yellow-vest protest movement ripped through the country, prompting Macron to spend €17 billion to mollify protesters.
Its economic problems are just the tip of the iceberg, though. France faces the same immigration challenges as the UK, Germany, Sweden, and most Western European countries. The elite are unwilling to face the crisis head-on on even in France, which has been tougher on Islamic migrants than places like Britain.
BREAKING: An Islamist from Tunisia has been shot dead by police, after he went on a stabbing spree in Marseilles, France.
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) September 2, 2025
What has Europe done to itself? pic.twitter.com/dMG1crLODo
Net Zero policies have led to tremendous social strife, and the French are being outbred by their migrant population so fast that the country may become majority Islamic within a few decades. Currently, about 30% of births in France are Muslim, and the native French population will be declining with a birth rate significantly under the replacement rate.
The current political, economic, and social order is collapsing, and that collapse will accelerate. Not only is the Muslim population exploding, but the Islamic migrants are far more likely to be net consumers of state benefits. Those benefits are already the vast majority of government expenditures, and they will only keep growing. And there is no money left to fill the gap.
IMF loans won’t permanently solve the structural problems in Britain and France. Politicians in both countries will need the IMF as a scapegoat for the inevitable cuts. Imagine the strikes and protests when the French are told that their pensions and government jobs are cut. pic.twitter.com/3kW8DEL9x4
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) August 30, 2025
European welfare states were fiscally unsound before the immigration surge. They are completely unsustainable now.
Meanwhile in France
— CraiginEngland (@ghost_wales) August 31, 2025
“The Government is teetering on the edge of collapse, the budget is out of control, there are emergency tax rises on the way and the rioters are gearing up for protests on the streets”
Sounds like the U.K too…. https://t.co/hvoYnRCRNQ
European countries are laser-focused on chastising the United States for being retrograde and not doing enough to bolster their view of how the world should work. It's like Gavin Newsom lecturing us about how to manage crime, homelessness, and increase government efficiency.
There was a time when Germany could keep the European economy afloat even with problems this severe. That time is long gone.
Europe is being lost.
But at least Macron looks great in a suit.
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