Regime Change Is the Goal

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP

Ed wrote an excellent piece earlier today about Trump's warning to Iran that it must give up its nuclear program "or else."

After exiting the G-7 conference early, calling together his National Security Council in the wee hours of the morning, and making statements to the media and on Truth Social that the time for negotiations is over, it's pretty clear that Trump is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear sites, and perhaps Tehran itself. 

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At the very minimum, the exhortation to all Iranians to evacuate the capital is a clear indication that the United States is directly coordinating with Israel about its war plans--something everybody knew in principle, but when spoken aloud sends a clear signal that the US is in it to win it, whether the bombs are ours or not. 

Trump's early departure may actually signal an intention to strike directly, but it might also be part of a plan to escalate the psychological pressure on Iran's leaders. There are many reports that Ayatollah Khameinei has been taken out of the decision loop by the remnants of Iran's military leadership--a much diminished group itself. 

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Israel has been systematically destroying the pillars of Iran's state power, not just its military infrastructure and nuclear program. These are distinguishable, as we saw in the first Iraq war, where the United States defeated the Iraqi military but left Saddam Hussein in power. 

Earlier, Israel had kept Iran's Supreme Leader off the target list, presumably because they wanted to prevent him from becoming a martyr. Now that they have removed all his top advisors--they are all dead, leaving the Ayatollah alone at the top--Netanyahu has upped the pressure on the Supreme Leader himself. It is much easier to stand tough when surrounded by allies, and much harder when surrounded by strangers who don't appear to want to listen to you. 

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Even Khamenei's international allies appear to be abandoning him. His proxies in the Middle East are emasculated--Hamas and Hezbollah are mere shells of their former selves--and his close ally Russia, is abandoning him. 

His power structure is left in ruins, his prestige stripped, and his opposition emboldened. 

As Tehran empties out, so does the Iranian regime's power structure. It seems the time for talks is over and the conditions for regime change have been put in place. 

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Israel has wanted regime change for decades, but American leaders have been reluctant to go there. Quite the opposite, in fact. Both the Obama and Biden regimes worked assiduously to prop up Iran, sending tens of billions to the country in an attempt to bribe them to be better. 

Trump has reversed that policy. So don't be  surprised to see the regime fall quickly, with or without American bombs falling. 

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Ed Morrissey 10:00 PM | June 16, 2025
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