There is a lot of talk about Ron DeSantis being out of the running for the Republican nomination in 2024.

He’s certainly behind, but the history of races for the nomination (and the general election) is littered with predictions like this that turn out to be wrong. Obama was going to lose. Biden was dead in the water. Kamala Harris! was a favorite. Trump had no chance.

Remember that one? Everyone waited for the collapse of Trump in 2015-16. On the day of the election in 2016, The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance of victory, if you recall.

So it’s no surprise that DeSantis shows no sign of reconsidering his run. The odds are against him right now, but being down right now hardly means he is out for the count.

One of the problems with running a campaign against Trump as a Republican is that in order to win the nomination and the general election any other Republican will need the votes of his supporters. So with the exception of Chris Christie, all the candidates have treated him with kid gloves.

Now? Not so much. Ron DeSantis’ super PAC Never Back Down has stepped up to take a shot at Trump. No doubt it will not knock Trump out, but it does scratch the paint on Trump’s reputation as an aggressive “truth teller.”

This is ad is straight 🔥🔥🔥
pic.twitter.com/NfRzKOHLGk

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) August 22, 2023

As I have pointed out in the past, Trump often spoke as if he might abuse the Justice Department, lending credence to the claims of his detractors that he was somehow an abuser of his power.

Not that I believe that siccing a special prosecutor on Hillary! would have been an abuse of power. Her abuse of classified documents and the illegal use of a private email server was indisputably illegal, but Trump’s choice not to go after her seemed politically sound for the obvious reason that weaponizing the Justice Department is an open invitation to your opponents doing the same.

That reasoning didn’t work out, of course. It was sound but underestimated the corruption of Democrats. An informal truce has been a key to political stability in the US, but that ship has sailed.

Which gets us to the ad. It points out the obvious–that despite his tough talk, Trump actually does have a record of backing down. The most notable case is letting Hillary off the hook, and how that has gotten us to today’s disaster. It turns out that the Obama Administration set up a bunch of legal and intelligence IEDs that have been blowing up in Trump’s face for 7 years, and will do so for several more.

All because Trump backed down when it counted. He let the Justice Department abuse its power against HIM while praising the Clintons as friends. At least at first. He called a truce while they continued the war, more ramped up than ever.

Will the attack land?

Yes and no. As I said, it scratches the paint. It reminds people that Trump is hardly infallible and that his superpower is bluster, not action. He talks big but often doesn’t follow through.

Still, Trump’s superfans will not be moved because they never can be moved. Peeling off voters who are persuadable will be a long process and may or may not work.

But after months of facing little criticism, the process of ripping the bark off Trump–or trying to–has begun. And with it the real campaign.