Michael Moore famously predicted Trump’s win in 2016. Today he appeared on the Hill’s show Rising and warned that the presidential race could be closer than it appears, especially in battleground states: “Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where—what are they saying this morning…Biden’s 5 points ahead in Wisconsin, maybe 3 points ahead in Florida, 2 points ahead in Arizona.”
“Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all, and second of all the Trump vote is always being undercounted,” Moore said. He went on to suggest that when pollsters call Trump voters they are not likely to get the truth out of them. Moore admitted his opinion was not scientific but based on his own instincts, “Whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half right now in your head. Cut it in half and now you’re within the four point margin of error.” “That’s how close this is,” he added.
Moore pointed out that in a recent trip to Michigan Trump held a rally in one of the counties Hillary won in 2016, with thousands of people showing up. He said he doesn’t know who is going to win the election next week but said, “I wake up every morning with the assumption that Trump believes he’s going to win and that’s good enough for me.” He added, “He thinks he’s going to win and I know he’s an evil genius and he’s smarter than all of us.”
Moore went on to say that he wasn’t simply saying this as an “exercise” to keep Democrats on their toes. “He’s already done it,” he said, referring to 2016. But later in the interview he said he could make the argument that this election was about to be “a massive tsunami” in favor of Biden.
The interview went off the rails a bit later when Moore claimed that a Member of Congress had suggested to him that Trump and AG Barr were planning to send federal marshals into Pennsylvania to seize election materials. Co-host Saagar Enjeti pulled him back and said he wanted to be careful about spreading what amounts to a conspiracy theory. Moore continued to argue for the rest of the segment that it was naive not to expect some kind of evil genius ploy in the final days.
Look, I’m aware that Moore might be saying all of this just to light a fire under Democrats to get out and vote. What’s surprising to me and what makes me think he might be actually somewhat worried (as opposed to pretending to be) is that he gave a similar interview to MSNBC earlier this week (wearing the same hat and from the same location) in which he sounded far less concerned about Trump’s chances. In fact he pointed to various signs that maybe Trump didn’t want to win the election and said he could wind up losing by 10 million votes. Overall it was a very rosy picture for Biden fans. So if the goal was to scare Democrats into not letting up on the gas, why not say what he said today on MSNBC?
I’ll leave it to the reader to sort out what constitutes Moore’s real beliefs about this election and what is just a performance designed to generate a win for Biden. Here’s the full interview from today and below that is the very different interview he did with MSNBC on Sunday.