Sorry about that. We had to tinker with the site last night to accommodate the comment surge lately and the stylesheet is now FUBAR. HA’s crack team of tech elves are already hard at work making repairs.
While we wait, enjoy Kaus’s four theories of how the polls got the Democratic race so wrong. Numbers 1, 2, and 4 were mentioned in passing on this site yesterday; number 2 appears to be the commentariat’s explanation of choice, doubtless because it slips so easily into the identity-politics framework. (For a nutroots-flavored variation, see here.) I especially like number 3, though, partly because it jibes with Clinton’s name-recognition advantage and/or the “lucky ballot” speculation at the end here, partly because it follows logically from the reports yesterday of almost 20% of Democrats deciding at the last minute, and partly because of … you know.
Any other theories Kaus left out? Did New Hampshire simply catch a fee-vah and the only prescription was, um, Hillary Clinton?
Update: I saw this mentioned somewhere last night but Matt Yglesias has it in graphic form. The polls got Obama’s final number right; it was simply that they underestimated Hillary, likely due to last-minute decisions breaking her way. More support for theory 3.
Update: The comeback to the comeback begins.
Update: Ambinder says some of Hillary’s senior aides didn’t even bother dressing up last night, thanks to their own internal poll telling them they’d lose by 11 points.