Open thread: Primary results; Update: Silky staying in?
posted at 6:03 pm on January 8, 2008 by Allahpundit
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I don’t know when the exit polls are going to be released but the fact that CNN is starting to release stuff like this makes me think “soon.”
Something to ponder while we wait: Would an enormous Obama blowout on the Democratic side change your GOP primary vote at all? The bigger his victory, the more one has to start planning for him in the general. McCain and Huck match up reasonably well (although not all that well). Mitt, I think, less so.
Update: Fox News says 59% of independents are breaking towards Democrats, which means a big win for Obama. He’s leading Hillary 44-30 among them. Among independents voting Republican, McCain leads 37-26.
Evangelicals make up only 21% of the vote.
Update: More exit-poll mania from CNN. 18% of Dems and 15% of Republicans decide at the last minute. More good news for Obama, probably.
Update: Here’s Politico’s vote-count page. They did a crappy job with Iowa. Hopefully they’ve worked out the kinks.
Update: Is campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle the first woman overboard on the USS Clinton?
Update: The Politico page up above is showing very, very early results, although I don’t think we get any official tallies until 8 p.m. Expect Obama to be called the winner instantly and a too-close-to-call situation between McCain and Romney when the networks take to the air.
Update: Spare a thought for Rudy, who doesn’t otherwise figure into today’s proceedings. And that word is … crater.
Update: As of 7:35 ET, 4+% of the precincts have reported. Politico has results.
Update: No Hillary hate, no money.
I just got a call from a conservative marketing consultant I know. He is in a panic. “I am in the midst of a major crisis with a lot of people,” he said. “Hillary Clinton is going to die today. Do you know what that means for conservative fundraising all over America?”
Update: The exit polls are out. Good news for Hillary, per Fox News — Hillary’s within five and McCain leads Mitt by five.
Update: McCain staffers are very optimistic.
Update: An insider tells Geraghty that Hillary’s lead is somewhat misrepresentative and should correct itself over the course of the evening.
Update: Two races down, 48 states left to go, says Silky in his concession speech, hinting that he’s in it for the long haul. Juan Williams speculated earlier that he might stay in it as long as he can just to antagonize Hillary, the “status quo candidate.” That’s exceptionally stupid if true since he’s almost certainly pulling more from Obama than from Clinton. Call it a double victory for the Glacier if she pulls this one out.
Dean Barnett e-mails: “98% of America will get the opportunity to reject John Edwards! My turn will come on 1/29 - can’t wait!”
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Makes the page refresh much quicker with only one page to work with instead of the equalivant of six pages.
News2Use on January 8, 2008 at 10:59 PM
Malkins at work! I’m glad, I had some slow loading today, so this will make a big difference. We might just make it through the next debate thread now.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 11:00 PM
I was hoping for a 12 point defeat, enough to put her into desperation mode, enough for her to rip apart her own party top salvage her future.
petefrt on January 8, 2008 at 11:00 PM
You really don’t have a sense of irony, do you? Remarkable. For one who give the appearance of being a student of history you are remarkably obtuse to its lessons and the wisdom it can impart.
NemoParticularis on January 8, 2008 at 11:01 PM
Yeah, there is no way that the Republicans undercut the Democrats the way a desperate and angry Hillary can.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 11:02 PM
ha! Luntz just sighed with a heavy heart and said Hillary just.won’t.go.away.
SimplyKimberly on January 8, 2008 at 11:02 PM
LOL. Nicely done, Tuco. Very nicely done.
NemoParticularis on January 8, 2008 at 11:04 PM
Heh, peeing on the fire hydrant,eh? You made the comparison, explain to me how you think it is relevant. (I think these comparisons are vacuous obviously).
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 11:04 PM
I can imagine Napoleon weeping afterward.
NemoParticularis on January 8, 2008 at 11:07 PM
John Edwards is the spoiler for Hilary. He takes votes from Obama, helping the glacier.
Vincenzo on January 8, 2008 at 11:12 PM
Hillary, you ignorant slut
Drunk Report on January 8, 2008 at 11:13 PM
Gee, this is no fun anymore. I’m going to have so much more free time now.
edgehead on January 8, 2008 at 11:18 PM
What pisses me off about McCain, he goes up there and says how great the Democrats are, and how they’re running their campaign on something larger than politics. The Dem’s go up there and either say nothing, or say all Republicans eat babies and rape kittens.
PROTIP: If people already don’t like your RINO politics, don’t suck up to your Democrat overlords on national TV.
p0s3r on January 8, 2008 at 11:19 PM
You are asking me to explain what should be obvious to all but the wilfully blind. Nevertheless, I’ll give it a shot - even if you think the comparison is vacuous (properly speaking, a comparison that is not really a comparison is said to be invidious, not vacuous.)
Washington stood at a pivotal moment in the history of the United States. If he failed to obtain a military victory - ANY victory - the war would be over and Britain would have secured the colonies under martial law within a year. At the time very, very, few people believed such a victory was possible. Folks such as yourself and AP would already have tossed their Continental Army uniforms into the fire and started practicing the various refrains of “God Save the King.”
By way of analogy (you are familiar with the word, yes?)the circumstances are much the same for Thompson. His situation is seemingly hopeless. But history has a funny way of working itself out and may do so for Thompson is much the same way it did so for Washington.
If you require further elucidation then I will have to secure a Special Education teacher to assist you.
NemoParticularis on January 8, 2008 at 11:20 PM
I stand corrected Nemo.
You, are the first to be enlisted into the Fredhead koolaide detoxification program.
My bad.
Hint: Washington was already elected.
The analogy you gave is applicable to winning the war over radical jihaad.
[sigh]
You newbies are “messy”.
Please clean up after yourself.
Mcguyver on January 8, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Guys, Ron Paul got more votes than Fred. That doesn’t say anything about Fred. That’s says something about the Registered Republicans in NH. Ron Paul is not a Republican, he’s a libetarian at best. The people voting for him are the same people that would vote for Pat Bucannon in a third party and they have the same mentality. How the heck do we get a candidate like that in there to mess things up?
BTW~ why the heck is Duncan Hunter still in this race? Dude, I love ya, but you need to get behind Fred and right quick! If not, I’m seriously going to have to re-consider voting for you to go back into the House of Reps. I voted for you before but I may change my mind next time.
Sultry Beauty on January 8, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Well, Fred! futures to win SC are trading at 1.1 (out of 100) on InTrade, so if you really believe that, you could make some serious bank (like 100:1).
LagunaDave on January 8, 2008 at 11:43 PM
Washington was a general in the example given. He was not elected president until 1788, several years later.
I suppose if “newbies” are messy, then oldies are “sloppy”.
But I suppose all analogies have their limits.
theregoestheneighborhood on January 8, 2008 at 11:49 PM
I was especially struck by one thing in Obama’s concession/victory speech a few minutes ago:
The scripted chanting of “Si, Si Puede” OOOPS… My bad; They were saying it in English…. “Yes we can!”. But other than that, it sounded just like the Illegal Alien rallies where they were chanting ‘Yes we can’ in Spanish, (meaning that they don’t care what the laws are).
Form the first time I heard Obama, at the 2004 Democrap Convention, I have had to admire his ability to give a pretty, inspiring speech….. Without ever actually saying ANYTHING of substance. He did that again, superbly, tonight.
LegendHasIt on January 8, 2008 at 11:49 PM
If this is the frame of your comparison, I suggest to you Foreman-Moorer. Oh, Fred’s not a boxer! Well any comeback ever will do.
The only purpose of such hyperbole (I meant vacuous, I think it is empty, void of real substance) for citing a comeback of such a historical nature is to create the impression that they are similar. They are not. Unless you are telling me that there are drunken Germans in North Carolina or something, which yeah, that might shake up the race. What you have implied is that victory in SC is akin to keeping the Republic alive. Hm, that seems um, a bit of a stretch to put it mildly.
Look, the reality of the situation is one of an entirely different nature. The only thing similar in the circumstances is the forecast was grim. One man was a genius who tirelessly prepared and was able to seize the opportunity when it presented itself. One man inspired devotion to the death when he stayed in VF unlike other officers, the other skips opportunities to shake hands with the people he needs to inspire. One said victory or death, the other said it’s no big deal if he doesn’t success. One dipped into his own purse to provision his men and continually petitioned Congress, the other complains to the press about process questions. Ah, but I forgot, Fred is too smart for all of that. He’s got a different plan.
The comparison, or analogy if you prefer, is invalid because the situation is dissimilar because the consequences are not comparable (though some people have promised not to vote), and the players are dissimilar, so much so as to be an insult to one’s accomplishments to compare him to the other.
As to the personal invective, with humor I find it occasionally amusing, without it, adolescent. I don’t recall seeing you here before, so I’ll just assume you are endeavoring to make a name for yourself out of all the newbies. You will find some people who are impressed by insults (I’m not one). So I’ll just add, as you run around insulting people trying to mark your new territory, try not to pee on an electric fence.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 11:51 PM
They were talking about that this morning - how much money it would take on Fred tickets to fund a college education for a kid. It wasn’t a lot of money, lets put it that way.
Spirit of 1776 on January 8, 2008 at 11:54 PM
Michael Steele and KP on Hannity and Colmes right now.
LagunaDave on January 8, 2008 at 11:55 PM
Yeah, Washington was chosen as the general by his peers because he didn’t “play” the media’s mind games and because he didn’t really want to be leader and because he wanted to make the “Guinness Book of World Records” for achieving the most with the least amount to effort.
Mcguyver on January 8, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Silky pony, going for the cleft pallet voting block? What a depressing candidate. Here I thought being born in the USA was a blessing.
Contrast Edwards’ speeches to those given by Reagan during his candidacy. Crazy.
Security Mom on January 9, 2008 at 12:15 AM
Sigh…I am going to have to agree with you. Likewise Duncan is also my congressman whom I have voted for maybe 5 or 6 times. Oh, and I don’t think he will run for congress again, I believe he is setting his son up for that. Just the same I will be disappointed in him if he doesn’t throw his weight behind Fred very soon.
I’d really like to see a Thompson/Hunter ticket. Duncan just wasn’t able to get the national traction he deserved and that became obvious a long time ago.
doriangrey on January 9, 2008 at 1:35 AM
617 comments and counting! That’s the most I’ve seen in the year and a half I’ve read this blog. (or maybe I didn’t pay attention until this comment pages thing–good idea, by the way)
p40tiger on January 9, 2008 at 4:26 AM
Your political observations are vacuous. You rational is also vacuous. Your analogies are vacuous. Your tone as a new commenter here is invidious.
csdeven on January 9, 2008 at 6:25 AM
Since this is an open thread let me comment on your new feature that separates the comments into pages. This is a bad idea. This makes it more difficult to read the comments rather than more easy. It was easy before to see if someone had responded to your comment because you only had do a search on the page. Now, depending on the number of comments you will have to search several pages.
Sometimes I am only interested in reading the comments of a given commenter. That was easy before, simply search on their name and read their comments down the page, now it will require a lot more effort since the comment are not all on one page. I think this new feature will discourage people from writing comments because with this feature it is less likely that their comment will ever be read. Scanning down a single page is much more easy than scanning sever pages.
This is a real bad idea, I’m very sorry to see it happen. It’s not an improvement, it detracts from the comments.
I really wish you guys would put it back the way it was… all comments on a single page is much better.
Maxx on January 9, 2008 at 7:09 AM
And you’re suggesting this as the 620th comment. Trust me, it’s easier to flip pages than to scroll down for that long.
Quisp on January 9, 2008 at 7:30 AM
Trust me, its easier to search a single page to see if someone has responded to your comment than to search 7 pages or more.
Maxx on January 9, 2008 at 7:41 AM
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