I wrote about this topic last month when the Institute for the Study of War was covering it. Now the story has percolated up to the Washington Post which has a story today about how Ukrainian drones are giving it a battlefield advantage.
A homegrown approach to warfare that started with a few hobby shop quadcopters has evolved into a sustained, three-tier strategy of short-, medium- and long-range drone programs.
At the far end, a new generation of Ukrainian strategic long-range UAVs is reaching deeper into Russia than ever, rattling civilians and forcing a military superpower to defend territory it never imagined would be at risk...
More critically, tens of thousands of operational drones are now blanketing the middle ground — up to 200 miles behind the front — scrambling supply lines, targeting rear command centers and hunting the air defense batteries Russia needs to protect everything else.
And along the 750-mile front, Ukraine is shrinking the number of human soldiers in the kill zone using remote-controlled combatants. Tactical aerial drones spot and attack Russians, while ground robots resupply Ukraine’s own troops and evacuate the wounded, turning what was once a brutal exchange of infantry and artillery into a technological gantlet that Russian forces cross only at tremendous cost.
The difference isn't just hype. It's measurable in terms of ground gained or lost.
Russia, which was capturing an average of 150 square miles a month at its peak last year, has slowed to a fraction of that pace. In April, for the first time in nearly two years, it lost more ground than it gained, according to the Institute for the Study of War...
“There is a serious slowdown in the Russian offensive,” Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin Russian political analyst, told The Washington Post.
The midrange attacks in particular have disrupted the delivery of supplies and fighters to the front, Markov said. “They are forced now to keep more than 150 kilometers [93 miles] away from Ukrainian positions. This is reducing the capability of Russian forces to maneuver operatively.”
Social media is awash in video of Russian soldiers being followed and blown up by Ukrainian drones. This is happening hundreds of times a day.
Of course none of this means that Ukraine has the ability to drive Russia out of the territory it has already seized, but it does mean Russia's ability to claim progress is pretty limited in the near future. Instead of progress, Russia has been responding with propaganda and threats. It recently announce a new, unstoppable missile. When Ukrainian experts examined remnants of it, they found date codes indicating it had been built in 2017.
At a presentation of electronics recovered from Russian missiles and drones, a Ukrainian missile forensics expert said on Friday that the Oreshnik recovered in January had been assembled in 2017 from components dating to 2016 or earlier, all of them made in Russia or its ally Belarus.
"We were rather surprised, because they say that this is a very new missile, but if you look at the year of assembly, it says 2017," said the expert, who identified himself only as Petro for security reasons.
As for Russian drones, Russia seems to be having difficulty controlling them. Just this week that is generating an international incident after one wayward drone hit an apartment building in Romania.
The Romanian Defense Ministry said the incident, in the eastern city of Galati, roughly 10 miles from the Ukrainian border, occurred during an overnight Russian attack on Ukraine. The ministry said the drone hit the roof of a block of apartments.
Romania is a NATO country which makes this sort of thing, potentially, a big problem.
Romanian President Nicusor Dan said early Friday that his country was briefing NATO and European Union allies and has requested additional anti-drone capabilities.
“Romania is a NATO member state and will not accept, in any way, the war of aggression waged by Russia against Ukraine to be transferred onto its citizens,” Dan said.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 29, 2026
We had a Russian Geran-2 drone that departed from Russia.
We know its trajectory, we know where it passed through Ukraine, we know where it entered Romania.
It was part of a swarm of 43 Russian drones, of which only one reached Romanian… pic.twitter.com/IW6zFLRLia
It's serious enough that Putin himself is reportedly responding to questions about it.
Russian President Putin said that that the origin of the drone that struck a multi-storey building in Romania cannot be determined until a proper investigation is carried out.
— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) May 29, 2026
"After all, we know that Ukrainian drones flew into Finland, Poland and somewhere in the Baltic… https://t.co/OOxTjYRYFh pic.twitter.com/EvYIlJzs1b
Maybe it was an accident but this is still a red line for NATO. Other NATO countries are reacting.
Russia’s reckless drone incursion into Romania shows once again Russia’s willingness to escalate. Germany stands with our NATO Allies. The incident once again underscores the need for strong NATO posture on the Eastern flank. We are ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.
— Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) May 29, 2026
And speaking of drones:
Last night a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace and hit a residential building, injuring civilians.
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) May 29, 2026
Time and again, Russia has shown it has no regard for civilian life, international law, or sovereignty of its neighbours.
We stand with Ukraine, Romania and all NATO allies. pic.twitter.com/OnwZ4aSAlM
So we'll see where that goes. Meanwhile, Russia's biggest problem isn't wayward drones but a lack of money to keep funding this war.
Russia’s spending on Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is on track to blow through its budget by at least Rbs2tn ($28bn) this year, according to a letter seen by the FT, piling pressure on the Kremlin’s finances as it faces a widening deficit...
The request highlights Russia’s struggles to finance the war despite allocating Rbs16.84tn ($238bn), or almost 40 per cent of this year’s budget, to defence and security.
The Kremlin planned a budget deficit of Rbs3.8tn for all of 2026. In the first four months of this year, however, Russia’s budget is already Rbs5.9tn — or 2.5 per cent of GDP — in the red, its largest deficit since Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Losses like this might be tolerable for a time if Russia were winning, but right now they are losing. And there's good reason to think it will get worse once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the price of oil drops.
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