Russia's spring offensive is off to a bad start

Vuhledar is mining town located about 20 miles west of Donetsk. The name means “gift of coal” in Ukrainian and the town itself is made up of high rise buildings which were homes for all the people who work at the mine. There’s a supply route near Vuhledar which connects the Russian-occupied region of Donbas to Crimea. Russia desperately wants to take the town to protect that supply line. So earlier this month they warned the Ukrainians they were coming.

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The Russians told them on Russian social media channels, hoping to scare them, the Ukrainian military said.

“It was announced and spread,” said Col. Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi, a spokesman for Ukrainian military forces in the area of Vuhledar, an eastern Ukrainian city where Russian forces have fought a faltering campaign in recent weeks. “It was done to diminish the morale of the fighters.”

“There were some units that got a bit panicky, but everyone got hold of themselves and fought back decently,” he said.

But by all accounts, the Ukrainian defense of Vuhledar has been more than decent. In fact, there are several reports out this week suggesting two Russian brigades have been devastated in the fighting and that it may be a sign Russia’s spring offensive is already in trouble.

The battle around the Ukrainian city of Vuhledar, which sits at the intersection of the eastern front in the Donetsk region and the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, is viewed as one of Moscow’s opening moves of a nascent spring offensive. Though it has been playing out for weeks, the scale of Russia’s losses is only beginning to come into focus.

Accounts from Ukrainian and Western officials, Ukrainian soldiers, captured Russian soldiers, Russian military bloggers, and video and satellite images all paint a picture of a faltering Russian campaign that continues to be plagued by dysfunction…

In one week alone, the Ukrainian General Staff, which is responsible for military strategy, estimated that Russia lost at least 130 armored vehicles, including 36 tanks. That estimate has been supported by accounts from Russian military bloggers, whose reporting on the war is influential in Russia, and by drone footage of the destruction reviewed by independent military analysts.

[British Defense Secretary Ben] Wallace on Wednesday cited reports that “a whole Russian brigade was effectively annihilated” in Vuhledar, where he said that Moscow “lost over 1,000 people in two days.” The British defense intelligence agency reported last week that Russian units had “likely suffered particularly heavy casualties around Vuhledar,” abandoning at least 30 armored vehicles after one failed assault…

A Russian marine who survived the fight in Vuhledar told the Russian media outlet 7×7, which is based in the Komi region of Russia, that those who survived the battle were considered deserters. The marine, whose identity the news outlet did not disclose, citing the need to protect his safety, said he was part of the third company of the 155th brigade. After his unit’s failed assault, he said, only eight soldiers were left alive.

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You’d expect the Ukrainians to claim victory but in this case even Russian military bloggers are saying the January offensive was a disaster:

“They were shot like turkeys at a shooting range,” said former DPR Defense Minister Igor Strelkov, who has become a strident critic of the campaign.

Strelkov, also known as Igor Girkin, added on Telegram that “a lot of good T-72B3/T-80BVM tanks and the best paratroopers and marines were liquidated.”

In another post on Telegram, Strelkov wrote: “Only morons attack head-on in the same place, heavily fortified and extremely inconvenient for the attackers for many months in a row.”

Strelkov is referring to a previous offensive in the same spot in November which was also a costly failure. Finally, there are lots of photos and videos showing that Russia really did lose a lot of tanks and armored vehicles.

This clip shows one tank and at least two other armored vehicles driving over mines.

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They took out this tank with a drone:

I’m sure Putin was hoping that the waves of cannon fodder and columns of tanks would give him something positive to talk about on the one year anniversary of his special military operation (which is in nine days). But it doesn’t look as if Russia’s fortunes have improved significantly in the last month.

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