A little less than two weeks ago NBC News published a story about the surge of migrants at the border that was expected as soon as Title 42 expired. That story contained this breakdown of where things might be headed:

CBP agents and officers are now apprehending migrants 7,500 to 8,000 times a day, the sources familiar with the data said, which is at or close to the record levels before Venezuelans became subject to Title 42. The sources said estimates of the extra number of migrants who might cross daily when Title 42 ends approach 2,500, meaning daily apprehension totals might hit 10,000.

The fact that the number of daily migrants caught at the border might be about to jump by a third had apparently inspired some creative thinking within the Biden administration. The NY Times reported they were considering limiting the number of migrants able to claim asylum because that would limit the number who would be allowed to stay in the US for approximately 7 years while they wait to have their case adjudicated.

The Biden administration is considering substantial new limits on the number of migrants who could apply for asylum in the United States, according to people familiar with the proposal, which would expand restrictions similar to those first put in place along the border by former President Donald J. Trump.

The plan is one of several being debated by President Biden’s top aides as the country confronts a high number of illegal crossings at the border. It would prohibit migrants who are fleeing persecution from seeking refuge in the United States unless they were first denied safe harbor by another country, like Mexico.

But even as the NY Times was reporting on this new plan, the Biden administration was denying that there was any plan to limit asylum seekers.

Two sources familiar with internal discussions at the Department of Homeland Security and the White House said that while many ideas have been considered to combat what could be an even bigger surge in border traffic, there is no “serious planning” around any idea to limit asylum-seekers from coming into the U.S.

To sum all of that up, the administration was expecting a big surge at the border and they had a new plan to limit asylum seekers, except they denied having such a plan. That brings us to yesterday when Axios published a story which sounded pretty familiar.

The possibility of 14,000 migrant crossings a day is pushing the Biden administration toward a new rule that would severely limit migrants’ ability to qualify for asylum at the southern border, Axios has learned…

• Encounters with migrants at the southern border are already at record levels, with the daily tally surpassing 9,000 three times in the first week and a half of December, the sources told Axios.
• Officials now are preparing for the possibility of between 12,000 to 14,000 migrants attempting to cross every day.

Behind the scenes: A draft rule that would impose an asylum ban for roughly five months — initially — has been circulated internally.

Four points about this. First, notice that we’re already approaching the 10,000 figure per day that NBC reported less than two weeks ago. Second, the new expectation is now 12,000 to 14,000 migrants per day. I don’t know how to put that in perspective for people but it’s just a tremendous number of people. What comes to mind is that it’s nearly the population of the town where I grew up in Virginia. If the border patrol were to apprehend 14,000 people a day for just 40 days that would be 560,000 people which is roughly the population of Baltimore. Keep it up for two months (60 days) and you’ve easily exceeded the population of Washington, DC. Of course border apprehensions don’t all result in people claiming asylum and remaining here but a significant portion of them will do so and all of them will have to be processed in some way. That’s a lot of people to deal with.

Third, the Biden administration may not have been lying when they claimed there was no “serious planning” to deal with this. Yes, they probably said that just to keep the open borders progressives off their backs and to some degree it was probably a lie. But they’ve proven themselves to be incompetent before so it may be technically true that even two years into this crisis they have done no serious planning. According to a separate NBC report, the new plan might raise the bar on who gets to stay.

The Department of Homeland Security is also planning new training for asylum officers who interview migrants crossing the border, the three officials said. They would be instructed to let migrants enter the U.S. to pursue protections if they qualify under the international Convention Against Torture, a much higher bar than previously required for asylum.

Those who cannot prove they’re likely to face torture if returned to their home countries would have to show they first sought and were denied asylum in a country they passed through on their way to the U.S. border, four sources familiar with the planning say.

Fourth, it’s worth noting that migrant flows at the border are seasonal. In the past the peak of the annual migration was usually in March, i.e. after winter had ended but before it got hot. As this Pew graphic shows, the peak has been coming a little later in the spring over the past few years.

But notice we never see a peak in the winter months. In other words, you have to look at 12,000 to 14,000 migrants as, potentially, the floor for the new normal. Because whatever numbers we see in January, the numbers would normally be much higher in March and May.

Here’s the bottom line from Axios: “Biden officials know they have both a political and potential humanitarian crisis on their hands. The very consideration of these rules is an indication of how seriously they are taking the problem.”

That’s fair I guess. They are going to be pummeled by the left (but not by the media) for replacing Title 42 with something that prevents migrants from claiming asylum. The fact they are considering it shows they know this is a disaster. It may also explain why Gov. Newsom is suddenly sounding like an immigration hawk. He may be smug and insufferable but Newsom isn’t stupid.

But of course it’s still not quite enough of a disaster that Biden with bother to visit the border. The media will keep covering for him on that front and shrugging off his inattention to a problem he personally helped create.

Update: The Times posted a story about the overcrowding in El Paso today.

From providing refuge during the Mexican Revolution to sheltering asylum seekers during the Trump administration, El Paso has long rolled out the welcome mat to migrants following their star to the United States.

But as migrant arrivals surge this month, becoming so overwhelming that some border crossers are sleeping on downtown streets as temperatures dip below freezing, El Paso’s historic hospitality may finally be wearing thin.

“You feel bad, because they are good people, running away from troubled countries,” said José Cruz, 75, himself an immigrant who came to El Paso from Mexico in 1998. Standing across from the international bridge downtown, Mr. Cruz shook his head in disbelief. “But this city, this country, can’t absorb everybody.”…

With few local options, the city may have to resume busing migrants to other cities around the country, said Laura Cruz-Acosta, a spokeswoman for the city, where immigrants already make up about a quarter of the population.

You can’t absorb everybody. I hope Chicago, New York and Washington, DC are ready for a lot more buses.