As Ed pointed out yesterday, there were indications from Danish and Swedish authorities that the leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines were the result of explosions, i.e. deliberate sabotage not accidents. All eyes immediately turned to Russia who has been playing games with gas deliveries through the pipelines for months. The NY Times created this graph showing the gas supply over time. As you can see, it took a sudden dip in June and then was up and down until this month when they shut it off indefinitely.

Still, with the gas already cut off, why bother sabotaging the pipelines? The fact that the exact motive was unclear seemed to leave some doubt about who was responsible. But today we’re learning a bit more about why Europe is pointing the finger at Russia.

European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines likely caused by underwater explosions, according two Western intelligence officials and one other source familiar with the matter.

It’s unclear whether the ships had anything to do with those explosions, these sources and others said – but it’s one of the many factors that investigators will be looking into.

Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said.

Russian ships pass through the area on a weekly basis so seeing them in the area prior to the pipeline explosion doesn’t prove a connection. Officially, the US is being more hesitant about assigning blame for this than their European counterparts. National Security adviser Jake Sullivan did refer to the leaks as “apparent sabotage” but beyond that US officials aren’t committing themselves publicly.

I spoke to my counterpart Jean-Charles Ellermann-Kingombe of Denmark about the apparent sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines. The U.S. is supporting efforts to investigate and we will continue our work to safeguard Europe’s energy security.

— Jake Sullivan (@JakeSullivan46) September 28, 2022

Nevertheless, speaking off the record US officials still suspect Russia if only because there aren’t an unlimited number of nations with the means to carry out something like this.

one senior US official and a US military official both said Russia is still the leading suspect – assuming that the European assessment of deliberate sabotage is borne out – because there are no other plausible suspects with the ability and will to carry out the operation.

“It’s hard to imagine any other actor in the region with the capabilities and interest to carry out such an operation,” the Danish military official said.

So if we assume Russia had the means and opportunity to do this, that still brings us back to the question of motive. Why sabotage your own pipeline? The current thought on that is that having already tried to send shocks through Europe by cutting off the gas, Russia is looking for another way to ramp up the price and the pressure.

…officials familiar with the latest intelligence say that Moscow would likely view such a step as worth the price if it helped raise the costs of supporting Ukraine for Europe. US and western intelligence officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is gambling that as electricity costs rise and winter approaches, European publics could turn against the Western strategy of isolating Russia economically. Sabotaging the pipelines could “show what Russia is capable of,” one US official said.

Personally, I think that’s it with maybe a little bit of spite on top. Remember at the end of last month, Russia was simultaneously claiming there were technical problems with the pipeline while at the same time a plant near the border with Finland was flaring off an estimated $10 million worth of gas per day. CNN spoke to a company with expertise who said the flaring might be a sign of problems with the equipment or there could be another possibility:

“[Russia] may be making a political point, trying to say [to Europe] ‘look we’ve got this gas, and we’re flaring it, you’re choosing to make it difficult for us to get it to market,’” Davis said.

In other words, Russia may have been transporting gas all the way to the border just so it could burn it off in a place where Finland would be able to see it burn. Think of the gas flare as a giant flaming middle finger and I think that was probably Russia’s intent. It doesn’t make sense logically or from a financial standpoint but it makes sense emotionally.

There was another story last week which was the same thing albeit on a much smaller scale. A twitch streamer in Russia was broadcasting a lit gas burner on his stove 24/7:

A Twitch user who claims to be in Russia has set up a 24/7 livestream of a stovetop running a single gas burner while music plays, seemingly to troll the rest of Europe and the United States, which are currently suffering from inflation in large part fueled by the war in Ukraine. The war and sanctions against Russia slowed the flow of gas and oil from Russia to the rest of the world, driving prices up. Basically, the streamer wasting gas as “f**k you” to the West.

“From Russia With Love!” Reads a message imposed on the livestream. According to the streamer, russiangas1, running the burner constantly will only cost them $1.44 a month.

After a few days that stream was shut down but not before a copycat took up the same act.

At the time of writing, the russiangas1 channel is inaccessible on Twitch, and users are instead greeted with a message reading: “This channel is currently unavailable due to a violation of Twitch’s Community Guidelines or Terms of Service.”

It is unclear what terms were violated by the stream, but the channel managed to draw a lot of attention while it was online and has even inspired several copycat streams. One channel, russiangas2, is similarly running a gas stove around the clock while another channel, russianhotwater, is endlessly filling up a tub with hot water.

It’s trolling. The flaring of gas near Finland was trolling on an epic scale. And I think that might help explain the sabotage of Nord Stream as well. Russia is saying we’d rather blow up our own pipeline than sell gas to you. Putin is hoping the pressure created by this stunt increases the pain on Europe this winter to a point where Europeans demand their leaders lay off Russia. And, as I’ve said before, there’s a chance this plan could work because Europe really is facing a crisis this winter.

As Europe heads into winter in the throes of an energy crisis, offices are getting chillier. Statues and historic buildings are going dark. Bakers who can’t afford to heat their ovens are talking about giving up, while fruit and vegetable growers face letting greenhouses stand idle.

In poorer eastern Europe, people are stocking up on firewood, while in wealthier Germany, the wait for an energy-saving heat pump can take half a year. And businesses don’t know how much more they can cut back.

“We can’t turn off the lights and make our guests sit in the dark,” said Richard Kovacs, business development manager for Hungarian burger chain Zing Burger. The restaurants already run the grills no more than necessary and use motion detectors to turn off lights in storage, with some stores facing a 750% increase in electricity bills since the beginning of the year.

Finally here’s a graph created by the AP. This is the counterpart to that chart above. It shows the volume of gas available in green and the price of gas is the blue line.

As you can see, Putin’s disruptions are working. Every time he does something dramatic, the price spikes. I think that’s what the sabotage of the pipeline was about. Another jolt to the system designed to create a bit more panic.

There’s more than a little desperation on display. Putin is putting all of his eggs in this one basket, i.e. maximum pain for Europe this winter. He must know that this is his one real chance to break Europe’s resolve. He has to do it now before Europe is able to find alternative sources of energy and before his own economy finally collapses beneath ongoing sanctions. Like the mobilization effort, this is a short-term desperation play from an authoritarian who knows he’s on the cusp of losing.