There is growing international consternation over North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s proposed trip to meet with Vladimir Putin in Russia, which we discussed here previously. One of the primary subjects they intend to discuss is the possibility of North Korea sending ammunition and other military support to Russia as they run low on supplies because of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Biden administration (along with the rest of NATO) would obviously be opposed to such a deal and the White House decided on Tuesday to issue a public rebuke to Kim, saying that North Korea will “pay a price” if they make good on the proposal and aid Moscow in that fashion. But the threat coming from Washington was vague at best, and neither Kim nor Putin seemed to be inclined to respond thus far. (Fox News)

North Korea will “pay a price” if it moves forward with a deal to provide arms to Russia amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, President Biden’s administration warned.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made the comments during a press briefing on Tuesday, responding to reports that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin may meet in-person.

“[This] is not going to reflect well on North Korea and they will pay a price for this in the international community,” Sullivan said. “We will continue to call on North Korea to abide by its public commitments not to supply weapons to Russia that will end up killing Ukrainians.”

One reason that Russia may not be inclined to respond yet is that the Kremlin hasn’t even confirmed that the meeting is on Putin’s schedule. Plenty of news outlets have reported that these plans are in place, and they very well may be, but all that Putin’s spokesman has said so far is that “there is nothing to say” because no meeting has been formally announced.

It’s not as if they could keep such an in-person meeting a secret. Kim Jong-un travels with a massive entourage using his own private train. That’s not the sort of operation that you can simply sneak out of Pyongyang in the dark of night without anyone noticing. If they really wanted to make an arrangement in secret they could simply set up a teleconference and not invite anyone else. (Though our spies might be able to hack into it.) So if they do go ahead with the meeting, it will be intended as a public show of force and solidarity. North Korea has grown steadily closer to Russia as part of the new Axis of Evil, and Kim would see such a meeting as a badge of honor, demonstrating that the world takes him seriously as a leader and international figure rather some some sort of hermit pariah ruler.

How much substance would there be to any aid that North Korea might be able to send to Russia? USA Today published an explainer on the topic yesterday, and the impoverished nation might actually have more military hardware than some of us suspected.

Putin wants Kim to send Russia artillery shells and other materiel including guided missiles designed to hit and destroy heavily armored tanks, while Kim wants advanced technology for satellites and nuclear to hit and destroy powered submarines from Russia, the Times said, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

Kim also is seeking food for North Korea’s 25 million people, who are suffering from severe food shortages. At least 60 percent of North Koreans live in extreme poverty, according to analysts.

So North Korea is very short on food this year, with a famine killing many residents in rural areas. But they still have a massive army, and like any army, they maintain a stockpile of rockets and small-arms ammunition. Russia has been running short of ammunition, but they are setting records in terms of shipping out grain and other foodstuffs to many countries, with China being one of the leading recipients. Looked at from that perspective, this deal sounds like a natural fit for both countries.

That doesn’t mean that the West has to like the deal, but it’s also unclear precisely what sort of additional “price” we could impose on Kim as Jake Sullivan suggested. We’re already imposing massive sanctions on North Korea and there’s only so much more we can do before we’re simply cutting off the country’s food supplies and further ramping up the famine. We don’t have any military or economic alliances with Kim that we can threaten to cut off. Short of launching a direct attack on him (which remains completely off the table unless he attacks first), what more can we really do? In the end, it appears that if Russia and North Korea want to do this, there isn’t much we could do to stop them without significantly escalating the war.