We’ve reached the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and an unexpected player has arrived on the field. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve watched China and Russia move closer to formalizing an alliance, perhaps establishing a new military partnership that could shift the balance of power globally. There has also been talk of China providing Russia with lethal aid to use against Ukraine. But this morning, rather than a shipment of rockets or missiles, the Chinese Foreign Ministry delivered a peace plan proposing to end the war and return Europe to normalcy. And Ukraine expressed an interest in it immediately, with Zelensky saying that he would be interested in speaking to the Chinese. But what’s in this for China? (NY Post)

On the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has called for a cease-fire between the two sides and for peace talks to commence as part of a 12-point plan to end the war.

China’s Foreign Ministry revealed the plan on Friday, Beijing time, and also called for the end of Western sanctions on Russia, measures to ensure nuclear facilities, humanitarian corridors for civilians to flee the conflict and a process to ensure the continuation of grain exports.

“All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible,” the paper released on China’s Foreign Ministry’s website stated.

Before we break this down, let’s look at the specific 12 points that China proposed.

1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality.
3. Ceasing hostilities.
4. Resuming peace talks.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs).
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.
8. Reducing strategic risks.
9. Facilitating grain exports.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.

While it didn’t appear on the list, China also condemned the use or even the threat of using nuclear weapons. The proposal said, “Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.”

At a quick glance, there’s really nothing outrageous or objectionable on the list. It’s actually quite generic in nature and could apply to any conflict anywhere around the globe. In fact, considering that it’s coming from a country that is currently in the midst of building an alliance with one of the nations involved in the war, it’s downright reasonable. The line about “respecting the sovereignty of all countries” is something of a shot across the bow at Russia, which I found rather surprising. Ideas about suspending the fighting, not damaging nuclear plants and resuming agricultural production and exports are all positive in nature.

But what makes China’s plan seem rather weak is the unspoken message that underlies it. This proposal definitely projects an air of, “let’s all go home and pretend that all of this unpleasantness never happened.” Can the world really just walk away at this point and forget what Russia did? At last count, more than 200,000 combatants have died, along with at least 8,000 Ukrainian civilians and assorted foreign fighters, including at least a couple of Americans. The country is in ruins and its infrastructure is almost completely collapsed.

That brings us to the things that are missing from the list. There is no mention of Russia paying reparations for all of the death and destruction that has unfolded over the past year. Perhaps that idea was vaguely included in “promoting post-conflict reconstruction,” but they aren’t really calling on Moscow to pick up the tab.

There is also no mention of what the borders would look like if the war suddenly came to an end. Ukraine has taken back some of the territory that it lost since 2014. Do they keep that? Would Russia have to give up all of Crimea? Or, conversely, would Ukraine have to pull back to the west and return to the borders as they existed prior to the invasion? That seems like one of the potentially deal-breaking questions.

It’s a rare day when I get to say anything nice about China given all of the problems they are causing in the current era. But I will at least give them credit for trying to help bring an end to this. It’s far better than simply announcing that they would be joining in with Russia to help wipe out Ukraine. We’ll have to wait to see the Russian response. They really need an alliance with China and Putin may feel some pressure to work out a deal.