Russia – The Paper Tiger That Still Bites

Europe seems to be on the brink of war with Russia. Reports are being released almost daily suggesting the Kremlin plans to attack NATO member states with a combination of drones and cyberwarfare. The most striking report comes from the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, which claims that the CIA warned France, Italy, and Spain about the Kremlin's plans to launch a drone attack from shipping containers in the Mediterranean Sea. Another report suggests that this hybrid war has already begun. An anonymous French official said Paris is already conducting covert military operations against Russia. The nature of these military operations remains unclear.

But Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has left many analysts skeptical about whether Russia is brazen enough to launch an attack on a NATO member state, even if it were limited. They argue that the Ukraine war has left Russia bogged down and ill-equipped to open another front. But make no mistake, the operation in Ukraine has not paralyzed Russia. The Kremlin is ready to mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional troops and continues to stockpile drones and other munitions. Time is of the essence, and European nations must respond by addressing glaring military deficiencies and mentally preparing their populations for the possibility of war.

The stalemate in Ukraine has shaped up to be a quagmire for Vladimir Putin. More importantly, it has weakened his position at home, leaving him increasingly desperate for some kind of victory. As a result, this winter is expected to be one of the war’s most brutal as Russia continues to ramp up drone production and plans to increase its bombardment of Ukraine. Russia is also expected to rally more conscripts and renew the northern Ukraine offensive to pressure the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron recently said the Kremlin may mobilize 600,000 new men by the end of 2027. As Ukraine struggles to replenish its own air defenses and ground forces, the fear of a Russian victory looms large. If Ukraine is forced into a temporary ceasefire or permanent arbitration, it would allow a rejuvenated Russian military to set its eyes on a NATO member-state.