Trump is right in saying that “many states will be different.” Since 2022 there have been 14 states, all governed by Republicans, which have placed new abortion restrictions in effect that essentially bans it at every stage.

However, several other states, either through ballot measures, executive order, or legislative action, have kept a woman’s right to abortion services legal – including the three critically important states of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Those Rust Belt redoubts will mostly likely decide who the next president of the United States will be, and which party holds the majority in the Senate.

This is the current Republican senate candidates Bernie Moreno in Ohio and David McCormick in Pennsylvania (Michigan’s primary is not until August) must navigate. But are these headwinds as strong as Democrats assume?