DeSantis is perhaps the most successful governor in the country, and recently won a landslide re-election in a very large and diverse state (and a state that, pre-DeSantis, was politically mostly evenly divided). Meanwhile, Trump is piling up felony charges, some merely products of political grandstanding (the Alvin Bragg show, in particular), but some more serious than that (Jack Smith’s federal indictment for misappropriating classified documents and obstruction of justice). More legal trouble is likely on the way, both from the Atlanta prosecutor and, more worrisome for Trump, further charges from Smith relating to Trump’s egging on the January 6 riot. And Trump continues acidly to trash good men and strong conservatives he appointed, in particular Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr.

So why does he continue to enjoy, not merely a big, but a commanding lead over DeSantis, and one that seems to be growing?

[It did in the 2022 Senate primaries, and we all know how those worked out in the general election. Bill offers some suggestions for DeSantis and others to change the criteria or at least seize the mood, but again, it’s very early in the process. The decision points for these voters will come after Thanksgiving, not before Labor Day. I’ll have more on this later, perhaps. — Ed]