Unless Democrats win the presidential race in a blowout — something that seems unlikely in our closely-divided nation — the Republican presidential nominee seems very likely to carry at least 3 states that have Democratic senators up for reelection in 2024: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. That puts Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Manchin at a disadvantage. We’re not sure if we would start any of them as clear underdogs in ratings, but at best they would all start in Toss-up races.
Beyond that, Sens. Sinema, Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) are all up as well. Their states all voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but by less than his overall national margin (about 4.5 points). A successful Republican presidential nominee would end up carrying at least some of these states, perhaps giving Republicans an opportunity to flip seats from this group as well. Sinema’s race, in particular, could be in flux, as she appears likely to face a credible primary challenge given her tendency to buck her party. Democrats did have varying degrees of success in all of these states last week — but, remember, midterm results typically don’t have much predictive value for presidential cycles.
The Republican nominee, meanwhile, should carry all of the states that Republican senators are defending next cycle, including the 2 most competitive states among them, Florida and Texas.
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