Now that Moscow is focused on the Donbas, what’s the plan? The goal, apparently, was to encircle Ukrainian forces in the region, block their resupply (as they have done in Mariupol) and then kill or capture them. But once again, they are failing. Only a week ago, retired US generals were drawing maps on TV, wondering whether Russia would try for a deep encirclement (covering lots of Ukrainian terrain and troops) or a shallow one (easier to pull off). Would they even try to go as far as the Dnieper River and cleave the country in two? Today, those aspirations are dying and the more ambitious ones are dead. Even “shallow encirclement” seems beyond Russia’s reach, thanks to Ukrainian resistance. Russian forces have made only small gains and haven’t sustained momentum. They’ve fallen far short of encircling an enemy army.

Although this stalled advance might look like a stalemate, it is actually far worse for Russia. Why? Because it shows their forces have been stopped before Ukraine receives its heavy weapons from the US and NATO. When those weapons finally arrive, they will wreak havoc on Russia’s forces…

Their arrival will signal a new phase in the battle for the Donbas. Russia’s tanks and artillery will be as vulnerable to these long-range weapons as they were to short-range ones around Kyiv. Ukrainian forces will be able to pinpoint enemy forces with real-time intelligence from their own drones and US intelligence. Equally important, Ukrainian soldiers can fire from safer distances, beyond the reach of Russian counter-fire.