3. Alabama’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate
This race moves up one slot because Katie Boyd Britt has shown considerable strength. Boyd Britt, the former chief of staff for retiring Sen. Richard C. Shelby, has significantly outraised Trump’s choice, Rep. Mo Brooks, garnering more than $3.75 million to his $1.8 million. Recent polls show her about even with or ahead of Brooks, with another candidate, retired Army pilot Mike Durant, in third. Brooks’s poor showing to date has reportedly upset Trump, which is not a good sign for the congressman, whose political future depends on the former president being enthusiastically engaged on his behalf.

4. North Carolina’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate
This race is another example of an early Trump endorsement that has neither cleared the field nor pushed his choice into becoming a clear front-runner. Trump’s choice, Rep. Ted Budd, might make it an effective two-person race, with former Rep. Mark Walker considering dropping out to run for Congress. But polls from both his backers and the campaign of his opponent, former governor Pat McCrory, show McCrory in the lead. This contest looks to be a tight battle between the GOP’s new and the old segments.