For the foreseeable future, I think there’s almost no chance that Senate Republicans would be the ones to abolish the filibuster. The current terms of GOP senators Mitch McConnell, Susan Collins, and Ben Sasse end in 2027. McConnell is never going to strike first at the legislative filibuster. Collins supports a right to abortion. Sasse, a staunch pro-lifer, has explicitly warned that abolishing the filibuster would cause wild national policy swings on many issues, including abortion.

While it’s almost unthinkable that Senate Republicans would nuke the legislative filibuster anytime soon, if Democrats do it, then we know that Republicans would indeed try to enact some national limit on abortion if the GOP holds the trifecta. But it’s not clear exactly where they would try to draw a line at first.