First, the drop might appear more pronounced because of a spike in infections in England in mid-July, caused by the delayed Euro 2020 football tournament, which led many people to congregate in pubs, bars and private homes, as well as stadiums. That, Edmunds says, is consistent with the higher infection rate among males at this time.

Subsequently, many people in the United Kingdom were alerted by NHS contact-tracing apps that they had recently been in close proximity to someone who tested positive. This spate of alerts, dubbed the ‘pingdemic’, has caused disruption to work and services throughout the country as many people were forced to self-isolate. But, says Edmunds, it might have done its job in slowing the spread of the virus.

Another major reason for the decline could be the end of the school term. Many schools in England closed around 23 July — which is too recent for an effect to show in the COVID-19 data. But a school-related decline in cases could already be apparent because some finished a week or so earlier, many older students were already off school after their exams, and around 20 percent of pupils were self-isolating at this time. “The contacts of school-age kids have dropped quite dramatically over the past several weeks,” says Edmunds.