Putin is testing Biden on Ukraine. Here’s what will keep him in check.

Putin has domestic reasons to feint or actually restart fighting with Ukraine. It’s a perennial tactic to distract his people from their stagnant economic situation, the pandemic, the unpopularity of his political party and his rule, and of course, Navalny’s poisoning and subsequent imprisonment. But Putin should know that a full-scale war with Ukraine could also backfire on Russia. The Russian people do not want to go to war with Ukrainians, and any attempt to frame military action as against Western-backed fascists would probably not hold up if enough Russian lives were lost. If a new offensive brought a united front of democracies and serious sanctions, it could spell the beginning of the end for Putin’s rule. If Russia gets its way despite the will of the Ukrainian people and international law, Putin will be emboldened to seek to continue spreading his corrupt political, military and economic influence to former Soviet countries and beyond. He will undoubtedly test NATO resolve, most likely in the Baltics. An attack or incursion into a NATO state requires a collective military response according to the alliance’s founding treaty. We must avoid such a situation, one where we would face a far greater danger of escalation than the one we face in Ukraine today. It’s also clear that Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang are watching. Indeed, China is simultaneously ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan, the Philippines and all of its neighbors and nations across the South China Sea. There will be nothing to deter other states from exercising might-makes-right territorial grabs. The international order will devolve into a pre-World War II sphere-of-influence dynamic, with competition fueling warfare.
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