Three hurdles for Romney as the campaign heats up

The third factor is Mormonism. For the most part, Romney’s religion didn’t arise in the Republican race. It’s possible it won’t in the general election. But if the campaign reaches the final weeks and Romney is leading Obama, some Democrats will find it hard to resist trying to make Mormonism a factor in the race. They tried hard in 1994, when Romney unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Ted Kennedy for a Senate seat from Massachusetts.

This time, their target will be a small but electorally significant group of independent voters who have reservations about voting for a Mormon.

For years now, Gallup has asked a poll question, “If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person who happened to be a Mormon, would you vote for that person?” In a 2011 poll, Gallup found that 27 percent of Democrats said they wouldn’t vote for a Mormon, while a smaller number, 18 percent, of Republicans said the same. For independents, the number was 19 percent. That’s a big enough number for Democrats to try to exploit, should they become desperate enough to do it.