Texas voters began voting in the runoffs yesterday, choosing between the top finishers in races from its March primary. The highest-profile runoff pits incumbent Senator John Cornyn and his challengers, Attorney General Ken Paxton. After Paxton unexpectedly finished behind Cornyn in the primary, Trump had made clear that he would prefer to avoid the runoff. He initially declared that he would endorse one of the two and expected the other to get out.
That was ten weeks ago. Trump finally issued an endorsement today, choosing Paxton over Cornyn, but only after voting started in the runoff. The question now will be whether it matters:
The Highly Respected Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, an America First Patriot, and someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT, is running for the United States Senate, to represent a place I love and WON, BIG, three times, with 6.4 Million Votes in 2024 (The Most Votes in the History of the State, BY FAR)!
I know Ken well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a WINNER! Ken is a Strong Supporter of TERMINATING THE FILIBUSTER and, very importantly, THE SAVE AMERICA ACT, something which polls at 87%, including Dumocrats, and yet can’t seem to get approved. Perhaps Ken can help move these important elements of Government forward because with the Filibuster, as an example, the Democrats will terminate it on their First Day in Office, giving us two extra States, D.C. and Puerto Rico, and a greatly enlarged Supreme Court of the United States, probably going with their Dream Number of 21 Justices from the 9 that we currently have — And these new Justices will be Radical Left Lunatics! Two years ago, our Country was DEAD — Now we have the “HOTTEST” Country anywhere in the World — And I want to keep it that way. Ken Paxton will help me do that, MAKING AMERICA BIGGER, BETTER, AND STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE!
Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate. He will tirelessly fight to continue the Great Growth of our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations (I just delivered the Largest Tax and Regulation Cuts in American History!), and Advance MADE IN THE U.S.A., Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE, Champion Texas Oil & Gas, Advocate for our Amazing Farmers and Ranchers, Promote School Choice, Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Support our Incredible Military/Veterans, Safeguard our Elections, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment.
Trump had made clear that he expected Cornyn to move the Save America Act right from the primary finish as a condition of his endorsement. Paxton upped the ante by offering to withdraw if Cornyn ended the filibuster and the Senate GOP passed the election-reform bill. Cornyn did come out a week later to endorse ending the filibuster and passing the Save America Act, but despite his status as the second-ranking leader in the Senate GOP, nothing came of it.
However, Trump's suggestion that "Ken can help move these important elements" ignores one fact: Paxton isn't going to get a chance to do it. If he wins the runoff, Paxton will have to beat James Talarico in November in order to take the Senate seat in the next session of Congress, not this session. If Republicans still have a majority in the Senate, they could push the Save America Act in the next session, but that would require a Republican majority in the House, too. And work on the bill would have to start from scratch in both chambers.
Don't overlook the November election either. Talarico is actually running close to both Republicans in polling, but Cornyn's doing slightly better than Paxton in the head-to-head polling at the moment. An outlier University of Texas poll has Talarico up on both Republicans by seven and eight points, but take that away, and Paxton's RCP average is still a bit weaker than Cornyn's numbers. The runoff is weighing down numbers for both Paxton and Cornyn, so the GOP can expect a rebound after this wraps up. Still, Cornyn's value as an incumbent will get negated, and Paxton has a lot of baggage that Democrats will mine for months.
Trump alluded to that in his announcement, in fact:
Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a Fighter, and knows how to WIN. Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness.
We'll see how well that works out when the time comes. And right now, the endorsement may not matter too much, because recent polls put Paxton ahead of Cornyn; he's up 3.2 points in the RCP aggregate average. Voters may be choosing to risk the baggage even without Trump's endorsement, and the late embrace may convince a few who haven't already cast a ballot to come along. Given the ferocious nature of this internecine fight, though, there may be few runoff voters left to convince in either direction.
Cornyn's not pulling out, although with voting already started, there's no way to withdraw anyway. In a statement today, Cornyn says he'll trust Texas voters to choose the safer route:
Cornyn indicated in a post on X he would press forward with his campaign, saying he has worked closely with Trump during both his administrations and noted the president repeatedly called him a “friend” during the contest.
Cornyn echoed a central theme of his campaign, that he's the best bet for Republicans to beat Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from Austin, in the general election.
“It is now time for Texas Republican voters to decide if they want a strong nominee to help our GOP candidates down ballot and defeat Talarico in November, or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about,” Cornyn said. “I trust the Republican voters of Texas.”
Voting ends a week from today. It won't take long to see whether Trump picked the right horse in the runoff, but it will take longer to see whether he chose wisely for the general election.
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