The Wall Street Journal wondered whether the visit from Volodymyr Zelensky with Donald Trump and J.D. Vance would help "reset" the relationship between Ukraine and the new administration. Some relationship-mending has already taken place. But not enough, clearly, when Zelensky demanded a military-security commitment from the US:
TENSE between POTUS, VP, & Zelenskyy in the Oval Office:
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) February 28, 2025
via WHCA pooler:
"Vance said it was “disrespectful for Zelenskyy to come into the Oval Office, litigating in front of the American media.” Then proceeded to say Zelenskyy does publicity tour.
Trump, raising his voice,…
Trump, raising his voice, said to Zelenskyy, “you’re not really in good position right now.”“You’re gambling with WWIII.” Vance: “Have you said thank you once? You went to Pennsylvania to campaign for the opposition.” Trump: “Yours running low on soldiers… then you’re telling us you don’t want a ceasefire.” After several minutes of heated debate, Trump said he thought that was enough. Press was ushered out at 12:23.
Yikes.
It looked more promising this morning. After getting a dose of reality from Donald Trump's negotiating team along with a path forward, Zelensky dropped some of his criticisms of the new direction taken by Trump. Trump in return walked back some of his criticisms of Zelensky yesterday as arrangements for a state visit firmed up:
Mr. Trump sought to smooth over the rift with Mr. Zelensky on Thursday before their meeting at the White House, brushing off a question about whether he still considers the Ukrainian leader a dictator.
“Did I say that?” Mr. Trump asked. “I can’t believe I said that. Next question.”
At a later news conference with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, Mr. Trump did not respond to a question about whether he owed Mr. Zelensky an apology for calling him a dictator. “We’re going to have a very good meeting,” he said. “I have a lot of respect for him.”
It sounds as though the relationship had already begun a reset -- at least until a few minutes ago. Zelensky had received a warmer welcome at first than he may have received a couple of weeks ago, when he hoped to push Trump by leveraging EU leaders to stay the course. Marco Rubio and other administration officials made it clear that such strategies would backfire with Trump.
Apparently Zelensky is still trying to negotiate terms of the deal, hoping to get a PR boost while doing so. If so, that was a short-sighted strategy, considering what the deal means for Ukraine:
The past few weeks have been rocky for Kyiv. After Zelensky refused to sign an earlier version of a mineral-rights agreement, Trump called him a “dictator without elections” and accused Ukraine of starting the war, which began when Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. More troubling for Zelensky, the U.S. began talks with Russia that didn’t include Ukraine.
But recent progress toward an accord, which is likely to be continued during his visit, has improved the atmosphere. On Thursday, Trump said he couldn’t believe that he ever called the Ukrainian president a dictator and praised the courage of the Ukrainian military. ...
Whether Zelensky can use Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy to obtain the security guarantees he is seeking is an open question.
Zelensky wants the mineral-rights deal to lead to firm security commitments from the West for Ukraine. Trump has ruled out support for Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But Zelensky and his European allies have been discussing other potential arrangements, including European troops stationed in Ukraine in the case of a peace settlement. Without such guarantees, Ukrainians fear that Russia could sign a cease-fire agreement, rebuild its arsenal and invade Ukraine again.
That's always been true of any negotiated peace deal. The only outcome that would have guaranteed otherwise would have required Ukraine to seize Moscow. That wasn't going to happen, but it's almost as clear that Vladimir Putin can't seize Kyiv either -- and it's not like he hasn't been trying. Even with a running head start and lots of resources at the beginning of the invasion, Putin's army bogged down through bad leadership, ancient tactics, antiquated materiel, and a lack of respect for the ethnic Ukrainians' desire to not be Russian.
The mineral-rights deal itself is the passport to 'security commitments' for Ukraine's sovereignty. The US and the EU will engage in massive capital investments that send a clear message to Putin -- hands off. Putin will understand that language, especially after three years of a futile war that has barely given Putin a net gain of a square kilometer of land that he didn't already control in January 2022. The mineral-rights opportunities offer a lot more security than the unsecured-credit-line of statements like the Budapest Memorandum, a lesson the Ukrainians have unfortunately learned the hard way.
It will also help Ukraine become much more economically strong to prepare against a renewal of hostilities, too. The agreement is designed to benefit Ukrainians most, as Section 5 details:
The Fund's investment process will be designed so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine intend that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the Fund Agreement.
The mineral-rights deal won't reset the US-Ukraine relationship, a process already underway this week now that Zelensky and Trump understand each other a little better. It will put Ukraine on much firmer standing with the US and Europe by making them partners with a real stake in Ukrainian sovereignty.
What about Russia, though? Will they go for a settlement that allows Ukraine sovereignty as a trade-off for what Putin had without the war? A year ago, maybe not, but things have changed for Putin as well:
General Jack Keane breaks down the dynamics of a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal – and explains the pressure on Putin from inside Russia. @gen_jackkeane pic.twitter.com/GLz5PLlp53
— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) February 28, 2025
Three years into the conflict, Putin has shown the world he doesn’t care about bloodshed. And if his goal was to install a Russia-friendly government in Kyiv, he remains far from achieving it. However, there is a third, less explored hypothesis that explains why the Russian president might finally be coming to the negotiating table:
Moscow could soon struggle to finance the war. ...
It's not just the financing. Moscow has had to send North Korean troops to act as cannon fodder on the front lines, who have performed miserably even at that thankless task. Russia's military has had to pull WWII-era armor out of mothballs and museums to shore up their losses. Putin may not be running out of literal gas -- they still have impressive fuel resources -- but they're running on fumes in every other sense. They have enough troops to prevent a collapse, but apparently not enough of anything to change the situation on the ground in any substantial way.
An agreement that allows Russia to take control of ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine -- which they have occupied for over a decade anyway -- while leaving the rest of Ukraine to the Ukrainians might look good enough to Putin now. And if he balks, then Trump may feel strongly about protecting America's access to Ukraine's mineral rights. If nothing else, this is more worth pursuing than another three years of killing hundreds of thousands in a pointless stalemate.
Update: Here's the video. This is why it's a bad idea to have these meetings without having all of the details settled first.
MUST SEE HEATED EXCHANGE! 🔥 🔥 🔥
— Salem News Channel (@WatchSalemNews) February 28, 2025
President Trump & Vice President Vance have a HEATED back and forth with President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office while cameras role. pic.twitter.com/swLlZxplob
Update: Mistakes were made:
Dana Bash reacting to the Ukrainian ambassador having her head in her hands during the intense meeting between Trump, Vance, and Zelenskyy: "I mean, talk about her worst nightmare. She was literally watching it unfold before her eyes in the Oval Office of the White House." pic.twitter.com/Z9kb0R4HWY
— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) February 28, 2025
To expand on my last thought, the protocol for state visits in connection to agreements is to have the deal already set first. Failing that, it's imperative to refrain from negotiating in front of the press. If Zelensky used the spray to argue for an American military commitment to Ukraine, that's would indeed be disrespectful; that should've been communicated in private. It's still not quite clear what touched off this fiery exchange, but the bottom line is it doesn't do anything for the security of either country.
That seemed to be Vance's point, while Zelensky appears to say he wanted to make his case to "the American people":
.@POTUS: "It's going to be a very hard thing to do business like this."@VP: "Accept that there are disagreements, and let's go litigate those disagreements rather than trying to fight it out in the American media when you're wrong." pic.twitter.com/WSZWZU4BBY
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 28, 2025
Zelensky could have made that argument public in another forum. If he started it, he's just learned a lesson in diplomatic protocol the hard way.
Update: Here is a more complete video of the exchange. The conversation got angry when Zelensky challenged Vance's assertion that the US wanted to try diplomacy to resolve the issue, which Zelensky apparently took as an affront.
BREAKING: Pres. Trump, Vice Pres. JD Vance, and Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy had a fiery exchange in the Oval Office over the Ukraine-Russia war.
— ABC News (@ABC) February 28, 2025
Follow live updates: https://t.co/fCP1QK3Oif pic.twitter.com/cKj5WpxY2I
Update: Well .... Zelensky got a reset:
NEW TRUMP STATEMENT --
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) February 28, 2025
“We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is…
... President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
Zelensky is admirable as a commander in chief fighting against a cruel invader, but he's not polished enough as head of state to prevent these kind of foolish ruptures.
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