Too fun to check? Probably, but it does correlate to the trendlines seen in betting markets and polls over the last couple of weeks. A new HarrisX/Forbes poll shows Donald Trump up nationally by two points, 51/49, in a head-to-head matchup with Kamala Harris. The battleground results show something quite different, however.

First the topline:

Trump leads 51% to 49% nationally when the survey factors in likely voters who are leaning toward one candidate, according to the online poll of 1,244 likely voters taken Oct. 21-22 and released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a noticeable shift from Harris’ four-point lead last month.

In a four-way race with third-party candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein on on the ballot, Trump leads by one point, 49% to 48% nationally among likely voters, when so-called learners are factored in.

Without leaners, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% among likely voters in a four-way race when respondents are given the option to say they don’t know or are unsure who they’ll vote for, while Trump leads by one point—49% to 48%—in a two-way race, with 4% of voters undecided.

The Forbes/HarrisX poll had its last iteration in mid-September, and it put Harris up four, 52/48. That took place just after their September 10 debate, which captured some of the early bounce Harris received. Previous to that, this pollster did four iterations between the Trump-Biden debate and Harris' anointment as nominee, all of which showed Trump ahead. 

So this topline result shows a significant shift in momentum in national polling. However, take a look at the picture in the seven battleground states, aggregated: 

That's an eight-point lead for Trump, when leaners are counted. Without leaners, Trump still has a significant lead at 50/43 in the battlegrounds. That makes it sound like most of the undecideds are outside the battlegrounds, and mostly among independents. The national numbers show Trump up 46/40 among firm indies, and 53/47 when including leaners.

Now for a note of caution. The national sample for this poll looks pretty substantial at 1244 likely voters. The subsample of battleground voters is quite small -- 322 likely voters spread across seven states. Aggregated, that's probably the bottom end of a reliable and predictive sample; for a demo it's not bad, but the geographic spread makes me cautious about considering it predictive. That makes it susceptible to distribution issues too; a big lead in GA and AZ (seen in more targeted polling) could hide a deficit in PA and WI, just to offer one potential scenario.

However, it's still data, and it also lines up with the trends in battleground states over the past few weeks. RCP aggregates that data too, and it shows Harris' support falling while Trump remains relatively stable. If I had to pick a word for how that trend looks for Harris, it would be ... exhausted. 

That's not the only way in which Harris looks exhausted. Remember that moment in 2011 when Rick Perry's presidential campaign ended? In a televised debate, Perry promised to shut down three Cabinet agencies if elected, but couldn't remember the name of "the third one." Perry had just had back surgery a few weeks prior to the debate and needed painkillers to stand through the event, but performance matters more than extenuating circumstances. 

At least Perry didn't forget the name of a state critical to the election. Harris did that yesterday in her NBC News interview with Hallie Jackson, who pressed Harris on why voters didn't trust her as much as Trump on the economy. Jackson had to remind Harris of the name "Michigan," as Harris pleaded exhaustion:

NBC: Why do voters trust Trump and not you on the economy?

Harris: Well, I’ve been to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and … what’s that other one?
pic.twitter.com/a3jGlLG3Qd

— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) October 22, 2024

JACKSON: Then why do you think that's not landing with voters? [Crosstalk] If you look at the numbers, it's the opposite. Former President Trump leads you on this issue.

HARRIS: Well, when I'm out -- this is why I'm going out to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and, and, um, and ...

JACKSON: Michigan.

HARRIS: Michigan. Excuse me, I just got in late this morning, actually. But going to three states actually, and I'm going to continue being on the road. I have to earn the vote.

First off, this may seem minor, but only when viewed with no other context. For the past week, the Harris-Walz campaign, and both Harris and Tim Walz personally, have claimed that Donald Trump is "exhausted" and out of gas. The Protection Racket Media has dutifully flogged the campaign narrative, even though Trump has kept a full schedule of campaigning and interviews. And unlike Harris, Trump doesn't take a day off to prepare for these interviews, as Harris did for this NBC News interview. 

As David pointed out earlier, Harris is taking today off as well as preparation for a CNN 'town hall' event tonight. Patrick Ruffini has the details on Harris' schedule and lack of campaign appearances with just 13 days to go before Election Day:

People ask if she's just throwing in the towel.

Based on her track record, it just seems like she's *extremely* nervous about these interviews, and so she does lots of prep, like a mini-debate.

Being afraid of your own shadow as a candidate is never a good sign.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 23, 2024

So when Harris claims to be too tired to remember the name of an entire state, especially a state critical to her chances of success, it begins to look as though the "exhausted Trump" narrative is yet another case of projection.