Where in the world is Esmail Qaani? Iran's top military commander had not emerged publicly since the IDF strike that killed Hezbollah's replacement leader Hashem Safieddine, and at first was presumed killed. Within a couple of days, denials began floating up declaring Qaani alive and well, mainly from family members in Iran. However, Qaani -- the successor of Qassem Soleimani, killed by the US in reprisal for attacks on American troops -- still hasn't made a public appearance.
New reports have an explanation for the mystery, although not perhaps a confirmed explanation. According to reports in Middle East media, Qaani isn't in Lebanon -- he's in Iran. And he's being interrogated by his own troops as a potential mole for the Mossad:
Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani is alive and currently under investigation in Iran, the Middle East Eye reported on Thursday, citing several sources.
His whereabouts have been unknown since Israel's Saturday strike in Beirut that killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah's presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine.
According to the report, the Islamic Republic is currently researching security breaches, with ten sources from Beirut, Baghdad, and Tehran telling the UK-based news outlet that both Qaani and his team were under isolation while under examination.
That could actually explain quite a few of the disasters suffered by the IRGC. Israel not only has had precise intel on Iran-axis assets in Beirut but also in Tehran. The IRGC had put Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in one of their safest locations, only to find Haniyeh in pieces after an assassination for which Israel still has not claimed credit. It might also tend to explain why the IDF knew the precise location of Hezbollah bunkers in Beirut, and when leaders like Hassan Nasrallah and Safieddine planned to use each specific location. (It still doesn't explain why Hezbollah kept using these assets even after it became painfully obvious that the Israelis had this kind of intel.)
However, that's all spilt milk. If Qaani turns out to be a Mosssd mole, what does that mean about future operations? Say, like what happens after your leadership decides to launch ~200 ballistic missiles at an already enraged enemy? Not coincidentally, Israel and the US are getting closer to an agreement on just where Israel plans to deliver their response:
But the White House characterized Wednesday’s call as “direct and productive” and the Prime Minister’s Office said it was conducted in a “positive spirit.” Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris listened in on the call.
The White House readout didn’t offer any new information regarding the US stance on a potential Israeli retaliatory attack against Iran, saying that Biden “affirmed his ironclad commitment to Israel’s security [and] condemned unequivocally” Tehran’s October 1 missile strike. ...
Gallant, meanwhile, vowed Thursday that Israel’s strike on Iran will be “lethal, precise and especially surprising.” Speaking during a visit to IDF Intelligence Unit 9900 — a unit that gathers intelligence in theaters of war — Gallant said that Iran “won’t understand what happened to it, or how.”
He said Iran’s strike last week, by contrast, was “aggressive, but they failed because they were inaccurate.” He also said that the entire Israeli security system, from the soldier on the ground up to the prime minister, was in sync around the strike on Iran: “The entire chain of command is in line and focused around this issue.”
If you're Ali Khamenei, how well do you sleep while thinking Qaani has fed all of their security info to the Israelis? Better question: where do you sleep, knowing that the Israelis are dialing up an answer to your ballistic attack?
And if Qaani has turned, then that's only the beginning. Qaani could have created a network of moles that might reach down from command to operations. Is that how Haniyeh got hit? Is that how Nasrallah and Safieddine got fingered? Maybe, probably, could be? There's no way of knowing without pulling that information out of Qaani, assuming he's actually the mole -- and they need it fast. With the Israeli response coming soon, the Iranians face the classic ticking time-bomb scenario. And thus, it's not exactly a surprise that the reports about Qaani also include a claim that he suffered a heart attack during interrogation, but apparently survived it ... for now.
How reliable are these reports? Middle East media routinely reprint all sorts of rumors and speculation as news, so don't bet your last dollar on it. However, Qaani's absence in the past six days as well as the body blows taken by Iran and its proxies since Israel decided to fight this like the real war it is creates dots that beg to be connected. Even if it's not Qaani, the Israelis have penetrated Iran's security services and proxies to an impressive degree -- and that can't all be SIGINT. The rapid succession of embarrassing setbacks would have even Western democracies conducting mole hunts. Tyrannies such as the Iranian theocracy would normally conduct them on an industrial scale, especially under this kind of pressure, and it doesn't take much to turn those into outright purges that could fatally weaken their regime.
If they suspect Qaani of being a Mossad agent, that's the kind of purge we can expect to see. That's still a big if, but given the acute danger of the Israeli response, it's more than curious that the head of the Quds Force is still AWOL. Stay tuned.
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