How many delegates have bound themselves to Kamala Harris' emergency bid to rescue Democrats from her boss? Does she have enough to avoid a floor fight at the convention?
Answer: Not yet. Kamala Harris actually doesn't have a single bound delegate, as the New York Times explains, because not one primary voter cast a ballot or caucus slip for her. But Harris has collected enough pledges from state delegations to win the nomination if they follow through ... assuming delegates don't change their minds:
Vice President Kamala Harris moved swiftly to assert herself as the de facto Democratic nominee for president on Monday as virtually every potential remaining rival bowed out and a majority of delegates endorsed her by the end of her first full day as a candidate, all but clearing her path to the nomination.
The Associated Press said late Monday that Ms. Harris had secured the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the nomination in the first round of voting. The pledged support is not binding until the delegates cast their votes, which party officials said would take place between Aug. 1 and Aug. 7.
In practical terms, that means Harris has likely won the nomination ... as long as she doesn't do something to force delegates to reconsider. That momentum picked up today when it became clear that no other Democrats announced an intention to compete for the nomination, which could reflect either (a) massive respect for Harris' abilities, (b) a desire to keep favor with the party establishment attempting to anoint Harris, or (c) a burning desire to wait until 2028 before testing ambitions for the top job.
I'm pretty sure it's not (a), and so is WaPo columnist Jason Willick:
The proposition that Kamala D. Harris is the Democratic candidate best suited to defeat Donald Trump is about as believable as the proposition that Joe Biden was mentally and physically equipped to serve as president until 2029.
That is to say: Both are obvious fictions. Democrats coalesced around the fiction of Biden’s acuity during the primary season. Now that Biden has dropped out, they are adopting the fiction that “no one is better” (as California Gov. Gavin Newsom put it on Sunday) to take on Trump in Biden’s stead. Any prospect of a competitive nomination process is evaporating as Democratic politicians — even those previously mooted as possible Biden replacements should he step aside — stampede to Harris.
Does anyone really believe Harris is the Democratic candidate most likely to block another Trump term? Unable to conceal Biden’s infirmity any longer, panicked Democratic leaders forced the president out of the 2024 race. They have a chance to put forward a strong candidate in a high-stakes election that is likely to be close. If they swiftly coronate Harris, Democrats would be elevating one of the weakest candidates available.
True enough, but it's the only solution to the Kamala Conundrum that Joe Biden created by choosing an extremely weak campaigner as a running mate. The alternative to anointing Harris is an open convention, and an open convention that bypasses Harris would create an identitarian-politics nightmare. The party would tear apart along its identity and factional lines, threatening Democrats all the way to the bottom of the ballot. By quickly rallying around Harris, Democrats will (almost) certainly lose the presidential election but can keep the party cohesion in place to compete down-ballot.
Or so they hope. And that assumes that Harris doesn't step on her own tongue badly enough to force delegates and other potential candidates into reconsidering, and that polls don't show that Harris loses as badly or worse than Biden. The polling slide panicked Democrats into forcing Biden to retire, and if Harris can't improve those numbers ahead of the delegate vote, get ready for more talk about the need for an "open process" after all.
What's the likelihood of improvement? Er ....
— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) July 23, 2024
And this is before Harris has to campaign publicly. My advice to delegates, via Geena Davis:
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