File this under Too Fun To Check. If this New York Times report is accurate, there are only two explanations, and only one that fits the "keep power at all costs" ethos of Biden Inc.
According to their sources, the Biden campaign commissioned internal polling to determine the viability of a Kamala Harris presidential nomination:
The survey, which is being conducted this week and was commissioned by the Biden campaign’s analytics team, is believed to be the first time since the debate that Mr. Biden’s aides have sought to measure how the vice president would fare at the top of the ticket. It was described by three people who are informed about it and insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information. They did not specify why the survey was being conducted or what the campaign planned to do with the results.
The effort, which comes as a growing number of prominent lawmakers call for Mr. Biden to step aside or suggest he should reconsider his plans to run, indicates that his campaign may be preparing to wade into a debate that has consumed the Democratic Party behind closed doors: whether Mr. Biden should step aside for his vice president.
While some of Mr. Biden’s top aides have quietly argued that Ms. Harris could not win the election, donors and other outside supporters of the vice president believe she might be in a stronger position after the debate, and could be a more energetic communicator of the party’s message.
As I said, there's only two reasons for Biden and his team to test Harris out as a candidate:
- Case 1 - Joe Biden remains obstinate because he really does believe that only he can defeat Donald Trump in November. He furthermore believes that Harris is the only viable alternative, and that an open convention would lead to a full-scale civil war, especially in the forms that people propose. However, if Harris turns out to have the same or better chance as Biden does in a general election, Biden will withdraw but only in her favor.
Call that case the Altruistic Case, if you will. The other is a lot less altruistic:
- Case 2 - Biden and his family have no intention of ever giving up power until disqualified through an election loss or term limits. In this case, they still see Harris as the only legit alternative, thanks to the DNC's cooked primary, as well as the Chicago meltdown that will take place in a rushed sprint for the nomination between Democrat Party factions. And the only way to tamp down calls for Biden's withdrawal is to get data on just how badly Harris will do at the top of the ticket.
Call that one the Reality-Based Case. We already have some data on a Trump-Harris general election from Emerson this week, and it shows Harris performing worse (43/49) than Biden (43/46) against Trump. Last week's Ipsos poll shows Biden tied with Trump 40/40, but Harris trailing slightly at 42/43. Other than Michelle Obama, who gets 50% in this Ipsos poll, no other Democrat alternative even gets to 40% in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.
On the other hand, today's WaPo/ABC poll shows Harris up two in a head-to-head against Trump, 49/47. However, this is also the same poll that shows no change in the H2H between Biden and Trump since the debate too, so take that with a grain of salt. Harris and her supporters could use this to make the case for a switch, but so far Harris has been a good soldier for Biden and remained firmly in support of his bid. That could change if Harris thinks that Biden's campaign is trying out Case 2 to paint her as unelectable, of course, a point worth watching as this story develops.
But it's also interesting that none of those notables calling for Biden to withdraw are choosing the easiest possible alternative, either. George Clooney, Jon Stewart, and various Democrat officeholders demanding that Biden stand down are all proposing open-convention plans rather than just a Harris succession. Why? Because they probably agree with the Case 2 assumptions -- and Team Biden may see that as their best strategy to short-circuit the attempts to dump Biden off the ticket. If Harris performs worse than he does, they're better off Ridin' With Biden ... or so they hope to argue.
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