Emerson: Trump Ahead of Every Possible Democrat Candidate

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert


This isn't encouraging for Democrats at all, although I suppose you can argue that since Trump is below 50% in every matchup in the latest Emerson poll, the results don't spell D O O M. Assuming every undecided voter breaks for the Democrat. 


The poll, taken over the past two days, is a high-water mark for Trump showing him close to breaking the 50% mark in most matchups, although it is interesting to see that Biden and Harris do the best against Trump and are at equal support, although Trump actually does the best against Harris. 

That actually says quite a bit about how unpopular Kamala Harris is. She is no more popular than a man widely acknowledged as a vegetable. Whitmer and Shapiro can at least claim that their name ID is low, explaining their worse numbers against Trump. If you think Biden is being humiliated in public by staying in the race, Kamala's humiliation is x2. 

Now toss in voter enthusiasm and you begin to see just how awful a position Democrats are in, up and down the ballot:

“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”

With third-party candidates on the ballot, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 6% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively.

Voter motivation varies by race, age and party: 

  • 78% of Republicans are extremely motivated, compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
  • 79% of white voters are extremely motivated to vote in this year’s presidential election, compared to 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters. 
  • Generally, as age increases, so does the percentage of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote: 39% of people ages 18 to 29 are “extremely” motivated to vote, 49% of 30 to 39-year-olds, 72% of 40 to 49-year-olds, 76% of 50 to 59-year-olds, 91% of 60 to 69-year-olds, and 83% of people ages 70 and older.

No wonder Democrats describe the mood in their caucus this morning as funereal. 

Democrats are facing a bloodbath, at least if they don't cheat so hard that nobody would believe that Joseph Stalin wasn't running the election. 

Obviously people are unhappy about the economy and inflation, but Biden is also getting creamed on an issue that he believes is his strong suit: foreign policy. Even Democrats rate him poorly against Trump on the issue, which is devastating to Biden as the US is involved deeply in two wars. 

A majority of voters (56%) think the U.S. foreign policy is worse now than it was four years ago. Twenty-seven percent think foreign policy is better now; 17% think it is about the same. 

“Perception of the status of U.S. foreign policy varies by party: 48% of Democrats think foreign policy is better now than four years ago, 87% of Republicans think it is worse, while 54% of independents think it is worse,” Kimball noted.


Yikes. And these numbers are not going to improve with Biden or Harris on the ticket. And one of them will be on the ticket. All that talk about a "mini primary" is just talk since Biden isn't going anywhere in the near future at least, and likely not at all. Harris will either be the #1 or #2, and nobody likes her or would trust her to run our military. 

Now, add in the media's flailing attempt to salvage their own credibility, which leads them to trash Biden and his defenders as fraudsters, and the situation is a total disaster. 

Don't count the Democrats out, though. They will turn their ballot harvesting machine on and crank it up to 11. It will be unlikely to save Biden (they may toss him over the side to save election credibility), but they will pull out all the stops to save their down-ballot candidates. 

Pop the popcorn, crank up any and all election integrity efforts, and get ready for a wild ride until November or even beyond. 


Join the conversation as a VIP Member

Trending on HotAir Videos