Just how far have Joe Biden’s polling numbers fallen? Far enough for Democrats to start distancing themselves from their party leader in advance of the midterms. It’s become enough of a problem for the White House to get the attention of the Washington Post, which posits a “big dilemma” for the party’s incumbents:

The comments by Kelly and Warnock — who represent states that Biden won narrowly but that have since turned away from him — reflect the attitudes of many Democrats wary of aligning too closely with the president ahead of tough elections this fall. …

As Democrats gear up for a difficult midterm campaign, one of the biggest variables is Biden’s popularity, which has fallen sharply amid his struggles to contain the pandemic, rising prices and foreign policy crises. Clear majorities now disapprove of the job Biden is doing, triggering uncomfortable conversations in the party about how much to incorporate him into their campaigns and prompting a range of early responses from Democrats in hard races.

Mark Kelly’s reluctance to rally around Biden is both understandable and notable. Biden barely won Arizona in 2020, thanks mostly to voter anger against Donald Trump over the bizarre feud with John McCain. That damaged the GOP ticket in the Senate special election, allowing Kelly a 2.4-point win over Martha McSally. Biden’s collapse almost certainly will push Arizona back into red territory, especially after Biden’s atrocious performance in the border crisis.

Raphael Warnock’s reluctance is more difficult to explain away. Warnock got elected as a full-throated progressive in Georgia, although helped massively by Trump’s rhetorical attacks on Georgia’s voting system and calls by Trump allies to boycott the special election that Warnock won. One would think that Warnock would embrace Biden, but a recent poll showed that disapproval of Biden had quadrupled among black voters in Georgia. Warnock needs a big turnout from this demographic to even have any hope of competitiveness in what looks like a Republican wave in November.

So Democrats have grown reluctant to make Biden their midterm focus, but the White House is in luck. Another major party wants to make him the 2022 poster boy:

Republicans, while navigating their own midterm challenges with former president Donald Trump, said they intend to make Biden a centerpiece of their campaign against Democrats. “The message that works everywhere, and the message that’s most effective, is the failure of the Biden administration and Washington Democrats,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Chris Hartline.

These factors have spurred some Democrats to keep Biden at arm’s length for now. Midterm elections are influenced strongly by how voters feel about the sitting president, and many Democrats are trying to inoculate themselves by forging their own brands and even criticizing some of Biden’s actions.

“What’s going on on our southern border, at least in Arizona — no, it’s not been effective,” said Kelly when asked whether Biden has done a good job on immigration.

This sidles close up to the “Republicans pounce!®” trope, but it’s legit in this case. Republicans will obviously beat Biden like a drum in the midterms because, as the Post correctly notes, first-term midterms are almost always referenda on new presidents. With Biden now less popular than the Russia-collusion-plagued Donald Trump at the same point in his presidency, he makes a juicy target, especially among the suburban House districts where the GOP rebounded a bit in 2020.

And Democrats know just how legitimate it is, too, which is why they’re distancing themselves from Biden now, where possible. A few incumbents are resisting that urge, most notably Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, where Democrats should expect a significant Biden backlash. That bravado almost certainly won’t last, though; wait and see just how many joint appearances Biden makes with Cortez Masto in Nevada. It’ll be probably the same as Biden makes with Stacey Abrams in Georgia, who created her own notable distance last month from Biden, and that time on her key campaign issue to boot.

It looks like Biden’s confidence-crisis cascade has rolled into the Democratic Party now too. Too bad Democrats didn’t do a better job in 2019-20 with Biden. It’s too late now — they’re stuck with him, and they stuck us with him, too. They’ll pay for that in November no matter how much they channel The Police. “Just like the old man from that book by Nabukov” resonates here, too.