Meltdown in Georgia: Black voter disapproval of Biden quadruples

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Given the “cliff” off of which Joe Biden has fallen in Georgia, Raphael Warnock must feel some relief to still have a virtual tie with potential GOP challenger Herschel Walker. A new poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution puts Biden’s overall job approval at 33.7% in a state he narrowly won fourteen months ago. A large component of that collapse is from perhaps the Democrats’ most important electoral demo, too:

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has fallen off a cliff in Georgia, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Thursday that showed just one-third of registered voters approve of the Democrat’s job performance.

That’s a sharp decline from the 51% of voters who gave Biden high marks in the AJC’s May poll. And it’s a troubling sign for Democrats eager to build off their victories in the last election, which ended with a narrow Biden victory and a Democratic sweep of U.S. Senate runoffs. …

A closer look at Biden’s poll numbers shows other signs of discontent with his presidency. The 62% of voters who disapprove of him include key elements of the coalition that helped elect him.

Only 5% of Democrats gave him an unfavorable review in the AJC’s May poll; in this poll the number rose to 21%. His support among independents fell sharply, too. But the contrast was particularly sharp in the most powerful constituency in the state Democratic Party.

In May, only about 8% of Black voters disapproved of Biden’s performance. That number had more than quadrupled in the AJC’s latest poll, which found disapproval among Black Georgians at 36%.

It’s a “nosedive,” as the AJC also characterizes it, and the discontent among black voters should worry Democrats the most. Biden still gets majority approval in this demo, but only at 59/36 (rounded), and only 25.5% strongly approve. At the same time, 19.2% of black respondents strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance thus far, which is at least better than the sixty-nine percent of white voters who strongly disapprove, and the 41.7% of the “other” ethnic demo that also strongly disapprove.

A few other demos have results of note. There is still a gender gap in Georgia, but it’s not doing much to help. Men disapprove of Biden 28.4/66.1, while women only incrementally improve on that with an overall 38.1/57.6. Voters under 30 give Biden his highest age-demo marks at 36.5/56.1, but also the lowest “strongly approve” rating outside of the GOP at 2.8%. That’s not a typo; Biden’s strong support among young voters is less than the margin of error away from zero. Poor voters rate him 44/53.3, and that’s by far as good as it gets in the income demos.

Notably, this survey took place between January 13-24. Biden’s demagogic speech in Atlanta took place right in the middle of the survey period. The entire point of comparing his political opponents to traitors and segregationists was to appeal to black voters in Georgia and elsewhere. The daily tracking information isn’t provided in this data, but it’s pretty clear that the combination of this speech and Chuck Schumer’s dumb stunt on the progressives’ election bill did nothing to boost Biden’s standing in Georgia, and likely not anywhere else either.

And at least for now, it’s also apparent that it didn’t help Democrats in Georgia either:

Head to Head Matchups:
The results of the head to head matchups are based on registered voters, not likely voters.
Kemp v. Abrams: Kemp +7.3 (Difference is statistically significant)
Perdue v. Abrams: Perdue +3.9 (Statistical Tie)
Warnock v. Walker: Walker +3.5 (Statistical Tie)
Warnock v. Black: Warnock +5.3 (Statistical Tie)

Warnock might be tougher to knock out than the GOP imagines, but this also relies on a relatively normal turnout model too. What happens in a red wave where black voters have grown disgusted with Joe Biden and have no enthusiasm to support him in the midterms?

That’s a question the White House will be asking, and likely one over which they are already hyperventilating. With results like this, don’t expect Biden to deviate from his campaign promise to appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court, no matter how many people point out that an Asian-American would make for a historical choice, too. Biden’s already fumbled expectations too much to make that mistake … right?