Let’s face it — House progressives stiffed themselves, and did so long before they capitulated on Friday. Over the last couple of days, they have begun to realize that they didn’t get much for releasing the hostaged infrastructure bill rather than shooting it instead, the Washington Post reports. Their gloomy assessment may still be a little too optimistic, however:

Progressives gave up a lot of ground when they agreed to vote for the $1.2 trillion bill to improve the nation’s infrastructure in exchange for a later vote on their top priorities.

Now, some of them are pretty pessimistic about the chances of getting their top priorities included in the larger, roughly $2 trillion social spending bill the leadership and moderates promised would follow. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was only able to push through the infrastructure package after Democrats took a drubbing in last week’s off-year elections and President Biden personally stepped in to lobby members. In the end, however, 13 House Republicans helped to pass that bill while six Democrats opposed it.

That in itself might create problems down the road, to which we’ll return momentarily. For progressive freshman Jamaal Bowman, who successfully primaried moderate House Democrat Eliot Engel last year, the lack of “legal” commitment to vote for the reconciliation bill after a CBO score worries him:

One of them was Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who told The Early on Sunday that he was “hopeful and optimistic” that moderates would make good on their word to allow a vote on the spending package the week of Nov. 15 provided it doesn’t add to the deficit but also expressed some skepticism.

Bowman said the commitment by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and four other moderates to support the reconciliation bill once the Congressional Budget Office scores the Build Back Better legislation was a “good sign, but it’s not a legal document.”

“What if the CBO score is not to their liking?” he said. “What if the lobbying efforts that have been taking place over the last several months continue and someone decides they no longer want to support the BBB at the current level — if at all?”

What if, indeed? It’s a bit surprising that Bowman’s considering this problem when the actual issue isn’t the CBO at all but the US Senate. Nancy Pelosi convinced progressives — most of them, anyway — to finally pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) that they’d held hostage for months on the basis that her version of the BBB would eventually get a floor vote and passage. Not only is there no real commitment for passage in the House yet, it’s very clear that Pelosi’s version would be dead on arrival in the Senate.

Progressives gave up their hostage for vaporware, in other words. They can blame that on Nancy Pelosi, and if the deal falls through, you can bet they will. However, the real blame begins and ends with progressives demanding total victory or nothing, while eroding the trust within the caucus by repeatedly preventing an easy win on the BIF. It’s been clear for months that they can’t get to 50 on their hobby-horse reconciliation bill, not even while holding the BIF hostage. Instead of collaborating on half a loaf, they held onto the hostage until it was far too late for the easy win to have any impact on the election in Virginia.

The impact passage would have had is arguable at best, of course. Virginia parents didn’t turn out in droves to free the BIF, but to demand respect and accountability from Democrats that had marginalized and insulted them. However, the received wisdom since last Tuesday is that Terry McAuliffe would have pulled it out had BIF passed. Both of Virginia’s senators have been flogging that line for the last few days:

Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Mark Warner (D-VA) on Sunday doubled down on their regrets that both infrastructure bills weren’t passed before the Virginia governor race that Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe lost. …

“The congressional Democrats have majorities in both houses, and the American public expects us to deliver,” Kaine said. “If we had done both of these bills in early October, Terry McAuliffe would have had so much to sell: Relief is coming in terms of lowering childcare costs, pre-kindergarten. There’s going to be infrastructure to hire people to fix our ports and our airports and improve our roads.” …

“The voters of Virginia and the voters of America gave us the presidency, the Senate and the House,” Warner said. “They expected us to produce. They have been hearing about this bipartisan infrastructure bill for months.”

Pressed on whether he agrees with the notion that Democrats are responsible for McAuliffe’s defeat, Warner said that he wishes the House would have moved sooner on passing the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

“But all of us know, I know as well, we need to pass the second half of the President’s agenda as well,” Warner said. “I wish we would have spent less time talking about top-line numbers and more time talking about what’s in it.”

Having created enough ill will among moderates with their stunt, how willing do progressives expect the same moderates to be when looking at the hobby-horse BBB? With inflation roaring and voters rejecting Democrats even in Virginia (and almost in New Jersey), the progressives may have strategized themselves out of anything like a win on the reconciliation bill, even apart from Manchinema’s demands.

Furthermore, their stunt and collapse undermined the anti-filibuster argument. The real obstructionists in the Biden presidency have been Pramila Jayapal and House Democrats, not Senate Republicans. Mitch McConnell cooperated on the BIF, and Kevin McCarthy’s strategic rescue of it in the Friday vote underscores that point. Republicans are still willing to collaborate on shared concerns, but only if they have meaningful input into the final form of the legislation — as one would expect in an evenly divided Congress. The true obstructionists and radical majoritarians are the progressives, who just tossed the dice on a bad strategy and came up snake eyes. The filibuster has nothing to do with their problems.

That’s not Pelosi’s fault, and it’s not Biden’s fault except to the extent that he kept backing their play even when it was clearly self-destructive to his own standing. Capitol Hill progressives have no one to blame but their own leadership — and the moderates aren’t going to be shy about laying the blame on them, either.