People often ask me about the midterm prospects in Minnesota, and my standard answer is to expect the, er, expected. Minnesota Republicans have not had a great decade; the last one to win statewide office was Tim Pawlenty in 2006, who’s the only Republican to win one since 2002. Despite the GOP’s best efforts, Minnesota remains a blue state with more conservative leanings than votes.

With one day to go before most voters cast their ballots — I cast mine in early voting — Survey USA gives Republicans at least a little hope in the gubernatorial race. Incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton only gets to 47% against Republican Jeff Johnson, who has closed the gap to five points:

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Dayton is down 3 points, Johnson is up 2 points. Dayton had led by 10, now 5. Among independents, Dayton had led by 6 points, now trails by 12 points, an 18-point right turn.

Dayton’s lead has dropped to 47/42, which … is still a lead outside of the margin of error, although just barely so. Dayton falls below 50% with both men and women, but has small leads with both. Unfortunately, he has a very large lead among early voters, 60/32, and a narrow lead among everyone else, 46/43. (Early voters only account for 6% of the electorate, at least according to Survey USA’s polling.)

Jeff Johnson leads among independents as noted above (45/33) and among 35-49 year olds, 47/36. He also leads in southern Minnesota by 10 points at 51/41, in western Minnestota by 9 at 51/42, and ties in northeast Minnesota’s Iron Range country at 45/45. Unfortunately, more than half of all voters come from the Twin Cities metro area, and Dayton has a 14-point lead there, 51/37. However, that’s pretty low for an incumbent Democrat, and it’s possible that late-breaking voters could put a dent into Dayton’s numbers in the metro area, which could give an opening to Johnson. It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible.

The more realistic problem for Democrats in the out-state areas is holding Congressional seats. The DCCC started an ad blitz here in the Twin Cities against challengers to Democrats Rick Nolan and Collin Peterson. They must be seeing the same numbers for western and northern Minnesota and worrying that Republicans could score a couple of pickups here, especially in the Iron Range, where Nolan just took the seat back from the GOP in 2012. Keep an eye on MN-08 and MN-07 tomorrow night. Also, the GOP may be in range to get control of one or both chambers of the state legislature, although that may be a bit of a long shot. It’s worth watching, especially if the national wave rolls ashore here.

Unfortunately, there is no good news in the Senate race. Al Franken is still 11 points up on Mike McFadden, 51/40. The Republican challenger trails among men by seven points and women by 15, and only ties among independents at 39% each. Franken gets a 53/40 job approval rating, even while Barack Obama only gets a 40/54. Democrats may lose control of the Senate, but if Franken loses with this polling, it would have to be an utter wipeout. Don’t expect any surprises here of that level.