Could Donald Trump's grudge match against Nicolas Maduro dislodge two Marxist regimes in Latin America for the price of one? Not to mention the radical Islamist proxy network extending from Tehran?
The US Navy seized a second sanctioned ship on Saturday, turning up the pressure on Maduro and Venezuela's only legitimate source of hard-currency revenue – oil exports. The next day, the US Coast Guard joined the hunt for a third tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. They attempted to board the Bella I, but the tanker avoided the Coast Guard, for now:
The tanker, called Bella 1, was sailing toward Venezuela to pick up oil. It is under US sanctions for links to Iranian oil. American officials view it as part of the shadow fleet that transports oil from sanctioned nations, and a warrant had been issued for its seizure.
When US Coast Guard personnel attempted to board the ship, however, the vessel kept sailing, the official said, leading to the pursuit. ...
“The United States Coast Guard is in active pursuit of a sanctioned dark fleet vessel that is part of Venezuela’s illegal sanctions evasion,” a second US official said. “It is flying a false flag and under a judicial seizure order.”
It was the second operation in the same number of days meant to interdict tankers tied to Venezuelan oil. On Saturday, the US Coast Guard intercepted the Centuries tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela.
Actually, that's not quite true. The Bella I is under sanctions, but not because of its involvement in Venezuela oil per se, although clearly that is why the ship entered the Caribbean. The New York Times explains that the Bella I helps operate the illicit Iranian oil trade, which is run by the IRGC and Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy army:
The tanker, called the Bella 1, was en route to pick up oil in Venezuela and was not carrying cargo, according to one of the officials and ship-tracking data, and fled northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The tanker has been under U.S. sanctions since last year for transporting Iranian oil, which federal authorities say is sold to finance terrorism.
When U.S. forces approached the Bella 1 late on Saturday, it was not flying a valid national flag, the officials said, making it a stateless vessel liable to be boarded at sea under international law.
American authorities had obtained a seizure warrant from a federal magistrate judge, which would allow them to take possession of the ship, two of the officials said. The warrant had been sought because of the Bella 1’s previous involvement in the Iranian oil trade, not because of its links to Venezuela.
But the ship did not submit to being boarded and continued sailing, one of the officials said. A second official referred to the situation as “an active pursuit.”
Authorities assume the ship does not have any crude on board at the moment, although that isn't yet confirmed. It's possible that the ship had oil from Iran to deliver to other ports, perhaps Havana, to which we'll return later. At the moment, no one's quite sure what the Bella I is carrying because the ship fled the vicinity after the attempt at interdiction by the USGC. The US Navy is now pursuing the ship, which is broadcasting its panic to anyone who will listen:
On Sunday morning, the vessel began broadcasting distress signals to nearby ships, according to radio messages reviewed by The Times and first posted online by a maritime blogger. The messages show the vessel traveling northeast into the Atlantic Ocean, more than 300 miles away from Antigua and Barbuda. By Sunday evening, Bella 1 had sent over 75 alerts.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Does Bella I believe that other ships will want to tag-team the US Navy in the open ocean? Does its captain think they can outrun the US Navy, too?
The increased interdiction activity makes clear that Trump intends to end any oil exports from Venezuela as long as Maduro remains in power. The NYT reports, however, that the White House has not prevented other shipping to come in and out of Venezuela, which avoids the cassus belli that a full blockade would create. Instead, Trump and the White House are getting warrants related to already-sanctioned activities and the enthusiastic enforcement of maritime norms, such as international shipping without proper flagging, which is another predicate for the chase and seizure of the Bella I.
These actions are aimed at both Maduro and Iran, as I wrote on Saturday. Hezbollah has spent years staking out a key position in Venezuela, from where they can run their oil, drug, and terror networks under the direction of Tehran's mullahs. Those aren't the only targets for this campaign, though, as the Wall Street Journal explained yesterday. However intentional it may or may not be, the embargo on Venezuela's oil exports may kick the last strut out from under the tottering Castro regime in Cuba:
Cubans are going hungry, suffering from spreading disease and sleeping outdoors with no electricity to power fans through the sweltering nights. A quarter of the population has fled during the island’s most prolonged economic crisis.
And it’s about to get worse.
The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Havana’s key benefactor, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro’s regime, which has kept the Communist-ruled nation afloat with cheap oil. Now Venezuelan oil exports are at risk thanks to a partial blockade targeting sanctioned tankers—the kind that carry about 70% of the country’s crude.
One tanker that the U.S. has already seized was en route with almost two million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
The blockade adds to a U.S. pressure campaign on Maduro that also includes a major military buildup in the Caribbean, airstrikes on boats allegedly connected to Venezuelan drug trafficking and threats of bombing the country itself.
Were Venezuela’s oil shipments to stop, or sharply decline, the Cubans know it would be devastating.
Venezuela largely replaced the defunct Soviet Union as the resource for propping up Havana's totalitarian Communist regime. Fidel Castro lived off of the Soviets' desire to keep an outpost a few dozen miles off of the coast of the US, but when the USSR collapsed, so did the handouts. Hugo Chavez, himself a student of Fidel, began replacing the Soviet subsidies with Venezuela's oil in 1999, both directly with cheap oil and indirectly with economic subsidies to keep the regime alive.
The Cuban regime understands what Trump's embargo means for its survival. They also know what Maduro's literal survival means for them too, which is why they've gone the Full Elvis on Maduro:
Cuba’s deep reliance on Venezuela means Cuba’s Communist government is doing all it can to prevent Maduro—who trained in Cuba as a young man—from being forced from office in his greatest challenge after nearly 13 years in office. That means ensuring he is always surrounded by security and loyal aides, with no one carrying cellphones or other electronic devices.
That may make Maduro feel secure ... at the moment. However, Reuters reported earlier this month that Havana had "reached out" to the Trump administration to see they could cut a deal if Maduro left Venezuela. All of that security could turn on a dime if Havana decides to cut bait in Caracas. If the Cubans throw in the towel on communism and on Maduro, the Western hemisphere will look very, very different very quickly.
