A new national poll shows Barack Obama under 50% on overall job-approval rating among registered voters, and it’s not Rasmussen this time.  Clarus conducted a survey of 1,000 voters last week and found Obama at 49%, and sliding badly among independents (via Jim Geraghty).  On health care, Obama has almost a majority disapproving, 49%-38%, which has driven his overall numbers downward.  On health care, the age of voters doesn’t matter at all; 48% of those under 45 disapprove, and 49% over 45 disapprove.

Independents have a decidedly mixed view of Obama:

• 86% think Obama is “very intelligent”
• 77% think he will raise taxes as a result of his spending
• 69% think he’s trying to do too much, too fast
• 64% think Obama wants too much government involvement
• 61% think Obama spends too much money
• only 34% believe he will keep all of his promises

Overall, Obama gets a 43% job-approval rating from independents.  Forty-five percent disapprove of his performance on the economy, a lower number than Rasmussen has found of late, but higher than the 41% who approve.  They also believe he is doing worse than they expected by a small plurality, 24% to 13% who say better, with the rest unsure or saying that he meets their expectations.

However, Obama still bests all of the predicted Republican challengers for 2012.  Mitt Romney does best, keeping Obama at 47% to his 38%.  Mike Huckabee almost duplicates the spread, 48%-38% for Obama, and does slightly better with minority voters.  Obama wins clear majorities when paired with Sarah Palin (53%-34%) and Newt Gingrich (53%-34%).  Only Huckabee wins independents, though, by a single point.

Clarus presents this analysis of Obama’s performance:

President Obama’s sliding job rating is real and not just a temporary blip. His numbers have gradually eroded since May. In this survey, he’s dipped slightly below 50% on overall approval and slightly below 40% on handling health care, which is dragging him down. …

Troubling for Obama is his standing among independents. His overall approval number among this critical swing constituency is 43%. In 2008, he beat John McCain among independents 52-44%. Independents think Obama is intelligent, honest and truthful, and many still see him as a strong leader, but large majorities think he’s trying to do too much too fast, spending too much, growing government too much, and likely to raise taxes.

Clarus believes the next 90 days will be critical for Obama, but this year may be a wash.  Obama will have to plan his legislative agenda more carefully in 2010 with an eye on the midterms.  He may do best by letting both ObamaCare and cap-and-tax wither, and focus his energy on immigration reform, which holds more promise for a split among Republicans rather than Democrats.  Even so, he will have to contend with Blue Dogs, who represent districts opposed to amnesty programs.