Democrats have every reason to expect a very good night on November 3rd.
Or should I say the day when all the votes are tallied, given how seemingly rare it is for all the votes to be counted on election day.
The mood in America is generally sour, and a populist wave seems to be swelling within the Democratic Party, aided by the steady anti-Trump drumbeat so often echoed by Pravda Media.
But you do have to wonder about an 'X factor' that is hard to quantify, but easy to think could have a decisive impact on how independent voters choose who to vote for: candidate quality.
It's easy to overestimate the importance of candidate quality: Jay Jones, after all, won his race, proving that under the right circumstances a very bad candidate can outperform even a very good one, as happened in Virginia.
But Jones benefited from circumstances that do not apply this election cycle: the freshness of Trump's victory, the fact that turnout in Virginia is unusually driven by government workers, and the fact that he benefited from a united party.
In 2026, Democrats are engaged in a civil war in which the most motivated voters are the most radical, and part of a movement that many voters find deeply troubling. Zohran Mamdani's election in New York ignited a rush to socialism that could haunt the party come November and into the 2028 presidential election.
I've wondered, for instance, why Abdul El-Sayed has been doing so well in Michigan, and one answer is that his message fits the mood of the Democratic Party, and some of that can be attributed to the fact that his opponents sucked.
In the Senate primary, Michigan Democrats have a choice between a candidate who wants to abolish prisons and campaigns with Hasan Piker and whatever Haley Stevens is doing. pic.twitter.com/UqZeXy2BoA
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 13, 2026
El-Sayed is a radical. He's supported defunding the police, blames everything on AIPAC and the Jews, and campaigns with Hasan Piker. He has a tendency to lie, but in a way that strokes the prejudices of the party's radical wing.
Congresswoman @IlhanMN is one of the most courageous and unwavering fighters in Congress right now. We need fearlessness and grit to fight back against Trump and his oligarchy. When extremists attack her constituents because of where they come from, she isn’t afraid to take a… pic.twitter.com/dSxyz16F4q
— Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (@AbdulElSayed) July 13, 2026
El-Sayed, though, has nothing on Francesca Hong, who holds a slight lead in the Democratic primary in August. El-Sayed is at least trying to lie about his positions, taking the Spanberger strategy and supercharging it. Hong isn't even trying to hide her radical positions. She's unapologetically a leftist.
Great call last night with @OurRevolution! It's time to take back power for working-class people. Wisconsin is ready 💪 pic.twitter.com/G1SvXnvaTB
— Francesca Hong For Governor (@FrancescaHongWI) July 14, 2026
She, too, has glommed onto Hasan Piker and antisemitism as part of her campaign strategy, and isn't even backing off from decarceration and defunding the police, neither of which is exactly winning issues outside the deepest of the blue cities.
The leading candidate for governor of Wisconsin right now is a democratic socialist named Francesca Hong.
— FinancialFreedom (@FinFreedom414) July 14, 2026
Listen to this idiot.
State run grocery stores.
Free child care.
Free for who? Who foots the bill Francesca? pic.twitter.com/RJmsvxs2cD
Hong is not a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, but she has consistently led in the polls for the primary despite or because of her embrace of radicalism.
Francesca Hong, a competitive DSA candidate in the WI gubernatorial primary:
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) July 3, 2026
"If Wisconsin is going to be a state that actually values human rights, then we have to ensure that we're fighting for the pro-Palestine movement and that folks understand that the liberation of… pic.twitter.com/rFvdYSu17W
Francesca Hong, a competitive DSA candidate in the WI gubernatorial primary:
"If Wisconsin is going to be a state that actually values human rights, then we have to ensure that we're fighting for the pro-Palestine movement and that folks understand that the liberation of Palestinians is intrinsically tied to the liberation of all of us."
And then there is James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate, who is desperately trying to distance himself from James Talarico. He is the ultimate woke beta male who embraces every insane social justice idea that Democrats espouse, and is going to have to do so in Texas.
What does James talarico call women?
— Lone Star Liberty PAC (@LoneStar_PAC) May 28, 2026
"neighbors with a uterus" pic.twitter.com/aRO4nLi5GQ
Admittedly, he is up in the polls right now and will have a war chest that seemingly will rival Elon Musk's, but it will take a political tsunami for him to overcome his inherent flaws as a candidate who fits Austin rather than the rest of Texas. He will likely drive even more Hispanic voters to the Republicans.
As Graham Platner's political trajectory shows, early momentum built on voter disappointment with the state of the economy does not guarantee that a deeply flawed candidate can ride the wave into office, at least in statewide elections where voters get to know who is running.
🚨 NOW: Republicans are running a BRUTAL new ad against James Talarico (D) to elect Paxton, PERFECTLY exposing Talarico as the weirdo leftist he is
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 27, 2026
- God is "non-binary"
- 6 sexes
- "Non-meat campaign"
- "Reckoning with whiteness" 🤡
ELECT KEN PAXTON! 🇺🇸pic.twitter.com/EEXcLnjq7N
Congressional races are fundamentally different; the amount of media coverage makes them more like generic races, and, except for the most prominent races, voters go into the voting booth (if they do these days) with only the vaguest sense of who they are voting for.
That's not true for well-funded statewide races, where both sides spend enormous amounts of money bashing each other, flooding the airwaves with negative ads.
NEW on CNN: Francesca Hong, a top Democratic running for Wisconsin governor, repeatedly called for abolishing police in past comments. Unlike others, Hong did not disavow those comments when asked but now says, "I recognize that this paradigm shift is a very long term vision." pic.twitter.com/FnjXWExvO4
— Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) May 22, 2026
The discomfort swing voters have with radical policies will play a big role this year in voting decisions, and could cost candidates in swing states the crucial margin of victory, which is why establishment Democrats are so worried.
For Democrats to make serious gains this election, they will have to take seats from Republicans, often in swing states. Ironically, the success of Democratic Socialist candidates in safe seats and the radical positions adopted by candidates in swing states could make that less likely.
The DSA may end this election season with big wins, taking elections in deep-blue areas, and losing many important opportunities in the elections that really matter to Democrats because of those victories where DSA candidates displaced ordinary Democrats.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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