Wednesday I wrote about the drones which appeared at Leipzig airport in Germany. That airport is a military hub for supplies heading to Ukraine. One of the drones, which was found on the runway not far from a huge Ukrainian transport plane, had a Semtex bomb attached which apparently didn't go off because of a bad detonator.
No one was saying that Russia was the culprit though it seemed likely that was the case given this particular location. I speculated that Russia might be sending a message to NATO countries with an attack that was never meant to succeed.
It's not hard to believe that Putin would very much like to send a message to the Europeans supplying Ukraine with military support. However, a successful attack on a NATO country would be more heat than Putin can really handle. If you blow up a plane in Leipzig, no expense is going to be spared finding out who did it. And you run the risk of actually bringing NATO into a conflict you are already losing.
However, you could send a warning, say an armed drone with a faulty detonator, or maybe two. You land one near a massive Ukrainian jet and you bonk the other into a plane at Europe's DHL hub. And the message seems pretty obvious: I can do to you what Ukraine is doing to me, scramble your shipping and economy with a few well-placed drones.
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported on some new U.S. Intelligence reports which indicate Putin may be considering testing the resolve of NATO countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to new U.S. intelligence reports that posit possible scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion.
The U.S. had previously assessed that Putin wouldn’t provoke a North Atlantic Treaty Organization country while he is still fighting in Ukraine. But that assessment changed earlier this year, the U.S. officials said, as Putin is squeezed in Ukraine and under pressure at home to secure a victory. Kyiv’s drones are inflicting growing damage on both Russia’s army and oil industry, while Putin’s forces are making smaller gains at the front line amid heavy casualties.
U.S. and European leaders increasingly see signs of Russia conducting probing attacks to test NATO’s resolve, including Russian cruise missiles that have landed in Poland and drones flown into Romania.
And maybe by flying armed drones in Germany? It's worth noting that this is not the first time Russia seems to have targeted Germany with this type of hybrid warfare. Back in 2024, the WSJ reported that Russia was experimenting with placing devices on planes that would start fires as the planes flew to the US or the UK. One of the devices caught fire at an airport in Germany. Can you guess which one?
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.
The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
The whole point of this hybrid warfare is that you can cause chaos and lots of damage without anyone being able to say for certain who was responsible. That's exactly how Russia behaved when their drone hit an apartment building in Romania.
The drone incursion raised alarms among North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies and fed European fears that Russia is working to escalate its confrontation with the alliance over its aid to Ukraine as Moscow struggles on the battlefield.
“Russia’s reckless behavior is a danger to us all,” said NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “They continue to target civilians and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine. And last night showed yet again that the implications of their illegal war of aggression don’t stop at the border.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin questioned whether the drone was Russian and called on Romania to hand over the wreckage so that Russia could conduct its own investigation. “No one can say the origin of this or that aircraft until an examination of that aircraft is conducted,” he said.
So was the latest Leipzig drone incident directed by Russia? U.S. Intelligence says yes.
An explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport in Germany this week likely belongs to the Russian government, according to U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports about the incident.
So, just to sum this up, the WSJ is reporting that Putin may be considering an attack to test NATO and also that the drone attack in Leipzig appears to have Russia's fingerprints on it. It sounds to me like we don't need to wait for Russia to test the resolve of NATO in Poland or Romania sometime in the future. It's already being tested this week in Germany.
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