I've been very much in the camp of the "trust Trump, he's got this" on the Iran operation.
It took cajones to attack Iran, and I have been impressed by his resistance to the political pressure to allow Iran to win the strategic war, despite the cost he and Republicans have endured.
I was surprised by what I thought was a premature cease-fire, but I assumed that Trump knew something that I did not, and it was a prelude to a breakthrough.
It's pretty clear that it wasn't, and it is also clear that Iran has only gained strategic strength since the implementation of what amounts to a one-sided cease-fire.
Iran has not ceased firing, and instead has increased its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, it has been working to prove that it has the upper hand by striking out at our allies and even seizing ships in international waters.
Iran has made us look timid, or even weak, and they are trying to prove that our military strikes have not been as damaging as claimed. It is working.
No doubt our economic pressure has been working too, and I don't doubt that the Iranian economy and perhaps its regime itself are in a parlous condition. In an ideal world, strategic patience might be warranted.
We do not live in an ideal world. Everybody's eyes are on the Middle East, and the United States does not look strong. It's not that our military hasn't performed beautifully; tactically, this may have been the most nearly perfect military operation in world history.
But wars are not won by great tactical victories. We had massive tactical victories in Vietnam, in Iraq, and in Afghanistan, but we lost two out of the three wars and had only a partial victory in Iraq when all is said and done. And in all those cases, we had boots on the ground, nominally friendly governments after our tactical victories, but no durable strategy for victory at the end of the war.
I was certain that President Trump had a strategy that had a decent chance of working; not an assurance of success, but a substantial one. Now I am not so sure.
The diplomatic back-and-forth between the Trump administration and Iran has been, shall we say, disappointing. To put it bluntly, Iran has been jerking us around, obviously with the sense that Trump's determination to win is fading.
I don't know that it is, but I suspect it has. He is clearly reluctant to bear the cost of victory, which could be substantially higher than he originally supposed.
His cease-fire has allowed Iran to get back on its feet, at least militarily. That was predictable, and it only made sense if a diplomatic solution was in reach. Iran is certainly more dangerous now than in the days before the cease-fire. They have access to missiles and drones that were once buried, and have had time to disperse them.
Trump does not have to let up on the economic pressure that has been eroding the Iranian regime's long-term power in order to restart the war. In fact, he can increase it through military pressure.
The perception of weakness often becomes reality, as we saw during Biden's term. It is unlikely that Russia would have invaded Ukraine when it did if the Afghanistan pullout hadn't been such a disaster.
Trump's presidency hangs in the balance in the next week or two. Unless he changes the dynamic soon, either through a clear diplomatic victory or a resumption of military strikes with a massive impact, he will wind up looking like a loser.
UPDATE:
Just as I finished writing this, Trump declared negotiations over. Let's hope this means he will finish the job. Overwhelming strikes, including some vital infrastructure. Trump can short out the electrical grid without destroying it.
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump drops STRAIGHT TRUTH on the traitor fake news
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 18, 2026
"If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands… pic.twitter.com/AdAk6AfPKw
🚨 JUST IN: President Trump drops STRAIGHT TRUTH on the traitor fake news
"If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting “I surrender, I surrender” while wildly waving the representative White Flag, and if their entire remaining Leadership signs all necessary “Documents of Surrender,” and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent U.S.A., The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the Fake News Media, will headline that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory over The United States of America, it wasn’t even close."
"The Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!! President DJT"
Full-on enemies of the people.
President Donald Trump told the New York Post he is “not open” to concessions to Tehran after Iran’s latest response to US efforts to reach a deal to end the war.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) May 18, 2026
Trump said he was not “frustrated” with Tehran but suggested Iran understands the risk of further US action. “I can… pic.twitter.com/RdOex8qiW0
President Donald Trump told the New York Post he is “not open” to concessions to Tehran after Iran’s latest response to US efforts to reach a deal to end the war.
Trump said he was not “frustrated” with Tehran but suggested Iran understands the risk of further US action. “I can tell you they want to make a deal more than ever, because they know we’re—what’s going to be happening soon."
Asked about his earlier suggestion that he might accept a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, Trump said: “I’m not open to anything right now.”
The president declined to elaborate, saying: “I can’t really talk to you about it. Too many things are happening.
Asked about claims that Iran may be trying to wait out Washington over the nuclear issue and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he “hadn’t heard that.”
“I’m not hearing anything,” he said. “I can’t talk to you about it.”
https://iranintl.com/en/202605180594
Simple, effective. Drop it.
This would be unacceptable:
The Iran-US war could end up never formally ending.
— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) May 18, 2026
A Korean solution, operational armistice without a peace treaty, frozen status quo isn't a remote scenario.
Trump already declared to Congress on May 1 that hostilities were terminated, mostly to bypass the War Powers Act.… pic.twitter.com/jyKeClmazY
The Iran-US war could end up never formally ending.
A Korean solution, operational armistice without a peace treaty, frozen status quo isn't a remote scenario.
Trump already declared to Congress on May 1 that hostilities were terminated, mostly to bypass the War Powers Act. The legal frame "war is over" is already in place in Washington, contested but in place.
Neither Tehran nor Washington can sign an MOU without losing face at home. Trump needs to be able to say "we decimated Iran militarily." Iran needs to be able to say "we never bowed."
A frozen status quo lets both sides sell narratives of internal victory without written concessions.
Two things to keep an eye on:
The US military footprint in the Middle East. A progressive drawdown signals Washington accepts the structural stalemate.
Hormuz transit. A substantial but not total reopening, maybe under de facto rules negotiated without being formalized, signals the same.
The new normal between Iran and the US. The Korean parallel has one operational limit. There was a physical line, the DMZ. Here there isn't, just a maritime corridor. But the strategic logic is the same: a frozen stalemate that lasts for decades.
UPDATE #2: Trump delays once again.
BREAKING: đź”´
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 18, 2026
U.S. President Donald Trump: "I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further… pic.twitter.com/0syorYDO66
BREAKING: đź”´
U.S. President Donald Trump: "I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP."
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